Portfolio Review Following Summer Travels: Northern Georgian Bay and the Yukon

There is more to life than investing.  It is a means to an end.

Northern Georgian Bay

Much of this summer was spent travelling around Northern Georgian Bay, one of the best fresh-water cruising areas in the world.  Within an hour from the marina where our boat is based, we can drop the anchor in a wilderness bay - the only neighbours are mink, beaver, Sandhill Cranes, the occasional black bear and the rocks and trees.  It is an idyllic place, but one where navigational hazards of various types can quickly bite the unprepared or unobservant.

I've gotten into the habit of taking early morning kayak trips while we are anchored out.  One morning, I got up close to a Sandhill Crane.  He took exception to my presence and squawked for several minutes, ducking behind rocks and trees, reappearing from time to time to check me out.  I heard a rustling in the reeds, a looked back to see this fisher not more than 10 metres away.  He showed no fear and I had the sense that, for a moment, he was appraising the situation from the viewpoint of one who occupies one of the top spots in his community.  It was a privilege to  have this experience - one which will be remembered for a long time to come.  Next year, I plan to "settle in" in that spot and do some calling to see if I can lure him in.  As you can see, these creatures are real killing machines: very athletic and well armed with sharp teeth and claws.

Paradiso is more or less a floating kayak platform.  It's perfect for our needs: no need for a generator while at rest due to energy efficient retro-fits and a solar panel mounted on the bimini which is also sufficient to power up the batteries for our electrically powered dinghy.  We can "stay out" for three weeks without needing to visit a dock for supplies and services.  

Here we are, nicely secured in an exceptionally sheltered location with fabulous views.  We stayed here almost a week and even though the westerlies blew at a sustained speed of 25 knots for two days, the boat moved only gently to some of the more powerful gusts.  And to think, we were approached only once by other people, a party of canoeists who got lost in the maze of islands in that part of The Bay.  

Yukon Canoe Trip

I've been in the habit of taking spring canoe trips each year.  This summer, I raised the idea of a trip to the Yukon with one of my canoe partners (annual trips since1978) and my son and his canoe buddy.  We decided on the Big Salmon River, a 350 km journey through pristine wilderness, far away from the distractions of roads and cell phone coverage.  

We flew from Toronto to Whitehorse via Vancouver and arrived on the same day at noon local time - time enough to buy needed supplies and equipment (at Toronto prices!). Next morning we took a four hour trip by road to the starting point on Quiet Lake ... and then we were on our own, a party of four canoeists with great expectations.  

The 11 day trip down this swift water river was wonderful: spectacular mountains framing both banks, thousands of spawning Chinook Salmon, many Bald Eagles, absolutely spotless campsites (I saw not one piece of litter), solitude (only one other party in view for a short time), easily navigated swifts (but one had to be quick to avoid sweepers in the upper sections of the river), the occasional trapper's cabin ...  

In this country, weather can be treacherous, but we were prepared with good equipment, including two exceptionally large tarpaulins which shrugged off the wind and rain and made life comfortable while we were on land.  

While we prefer to travel on our own, guided trips are readily available at fairly reasonable rates.  A shorter, easier river, the Teslin, is less demanding and is more suitable for less experienced canoeists.  It is an ideal first-time trip for people wishing to experience the Yukon wilderness, especially when accompanied by experienced wilderness guides.  

There are two main outfitters in Whitehorse.  Both offer guided trips in addition to equipment rentals:

Up North Adventures

Kanoe People

Coast Mountain Sports is a great source for equipment.  Their prices are comparable those offered by Mountain Equipment Co-op.  

On the basis of our experience, I would recommend that you make sure to have the following equipment in your kit:

• large tarpaulins and lots of line
• heavy duty rain gear capable of keeping you dry in cold and rainy weather
• a solar shower as the river is often much too cold for comfort
• rubber boots - the best footwear 
• a satellite-based emergency communications device: SPOT or InReach

Portfolio Review

• Winter has arrived.  At this time of year, I generally undertake an extensive review of our investment portfolios.  This process has been described in earlier posts. 

As part of the review, I assess holdings in terms of other investments with the potential for higher returns.

I follow two basic approaches:

• a "bottom up" approach using stock screeners to identify companies with appealing metrics 
• a "top down" approach where strategic themes are used to focus research

The bulk of the work consists of refining my research and undertaking due diligence.  

A few random observations:

• I read the financial press only very rarely
• I read a few financial blogs but only to get an idea of the writers' thinking processes
• I read a few hours each day with a focus on: international think tanks, trade/industry organizations, regional newspapers, resource geography, early stage investment companies
• In an effort to learn more about specific investment themes, I develop a "systems model" to identify the roles of various actors.  I will spend months/years sifting through a variety of sources: trade publications, scientific articles, regional/local press, company web sites of various types, financial reports etc.  
• Other than speculative activity (e.g. recent trading in precious metals mining companies) I rarely trade, preferring to hold companies for more than five years.  
• I have a high tolerance for fluctuations in the price of stocks within the portfolio and only change holdings if I detect a fault in my investment thesis.  This can be the result of faulty research/assumptions, changing conditions (management turnover, fundamental long-term changes in the market/sector, inability of companies to adjust to change or otherwise maintain a competitive position etc).  I pay almost no attention to cyclical variations in the sector, and if anything, add to my position when buying opportunities arise.  

At present, I am focusing on a few themes:

• agriculture
• infrastructure
• shipping

A Note About the Future of this Blog

I am thinking about writing a new blog to include a more expansive range of topics.  The outline is being refined.  In a few months, I'll post a few items.  

Silver - Better than Gold

A short note as I'm on my boat and busy with things other than investments.

Tremendous profits have been realized recently with precious metals. It's all about the theme of "safe haven" in the face of Brexit, turmoil in the oil and gas sector, an underlying sense the things are not well in the Middle East, and a belief that low interest rates will be with us for a few years yet.

Recently, I have invested fairly heavily in silver stocks. Why?

• a belief that production has declined as a result of a lower demand for base metals - silver is a byproduct of many base metal mines 
• a sense that the silver to gold ratio will gradually revert to the norm over time (to the benefit of a disproportionate increase in silver prices relative to gold)
• a sense that the investment world in awakening to the potential for gain by investing in silver (my experience has been that gold leads during the initial run-up in precious metals prices and that silver coat-tails once the trend has been established and that it outperforms gold thereafter)

In making decisions about Potential investments in silver companies, the following criteria are significant:

• experienced  management with a proven track record (note that many "duds" in the mining industry whose idiotic decisions brought their former companies to their knees have found employment in the same industry after being dismissed for subpar performance .... it literally pays to Google the executives of mining companies ... and if you see recycled duds on the executive roster of prospective "buys", run - don't walk away as history has a habit of repeating itself
• operations in stable countries with the rule of law
• active production with the potential for expansion at low cost 
• great balance sheets
• listings on both Canadian and American stock exchanges (Retail investors in the US are wont to stay close to home.  I figure that dual listings give companies a potential for greater gain than would be the case if listings were restricted to Canada)

In a future post I'll list some interesting companies. 

The Best of Niagara-on-the-Lake: a biased view

Profits from speculation in gold were put to good use recently - a visit to Niagara-on-the-Lake.

The Niagara River frontier was a focal point during the War of 1812.  The British side of the river was sprinkled with military fortifications at various strategic points.  A few of them are now protected by Parks Canada.  Other than a few sporadic maritime raids by Germans during WWI and WWII, the Niagara Frontier presented the only time when Canada (Upper Canada at the time) ever experienced directly a sustained period of war, a time when the security of settlements was threatened in a very real way (other than the Seven Years' War of the mid 1700's).  The threat of invasion from the United States is the reason why authorities decided to locate our national capital in Ottawa, well away from the border.  Read this.

Once a centre for governance in the early days of Upper Canada, the Town of Niagara-on-the-Lake has retained much of its original architecture: well-preserved churches and civic buildings dating from the early 1800's, clapboard houses set back from tree-lined streets, and a main street replete with shops and restaurants catering to well-heeled visitors, mostly WOOFIES - well off olde farts).

After staying at various places over the years (both on business and for pleasure) I have settled on a very well managed boutique hotel. The Harbour House is situated in a quiet area by the local yacht club.  The rooms are nicely appointed and a few of them have river views.  The breakfasts are delightful.  The hotel has a nice tradition: wine and cheese between 4:00 and 5:00 PM.  It presents guests with the opportunity to meet and share observations about life.

While we generally avoid the main street and shops of Niagara with the exception of a few restaurants and the theatre, we do make a valiant effort to sample wines.

If ever you plan to visit the area, here are some of the highlights which keep us coming back:

Big Head Wines is perhaps, the best winery in the area.  Its wines are made using the ripasso method and, without reservation, they are the best I've yet had the joy of tasting in the Niagara region.

Sunnybrook was one of the most memorable places that we visited. It specializes in fruit wines.  Initially, we were not impressed by the idea of fruit wines; however, once we left our prejudices behind and tasted a few of the offerings, we found that a new door had opened.  I especially like the peach and Bosc pear wines.  There are a variety of ways you can serve these wines: just use your imagination.  Once, while at Park City in Utah, I visited a shop which specialized in hot sauces. The owner suggested putting a drop or two of clear hot sauce in a glass of red or white wine.  I was a bit sceptical, but after trying the "recipe" I was hooked.  We have a bottle in the fridge for just that purpose - not all the time, but we resort to it sometimes when the wine might need a bit of a lift.  Try it.

Here is a complete list of the Niagara wineries: List

Another great attraction is the Shaw Festival. The Shaw Festival is a theatre company inspired by the work of Bernard Shaw. We produce plays from and about his era and contemporary plays that share Shaw’s provocative exploration of society and celebration of humanity.

The Shaw Festival presents plays in four distinctive theatres: the Festival Theatre – The Shaw’s flagship theatre, the historic Court House Theatre where The Shaw first began performing, the Royal George Theatre, modeled after an Edwardian opera house and the Studio Theatre, the home of our contemporary Shavians in our 175-seat most intimate space. All theatres are within a short walking distance of each other.

While there are numerous natural attractions such as the Niagara Falls and other sites managed by the Niagara Parks Commission, my favourite is the Niagara Glen.   Click also on the following link: http://www.tourniagara.com/geologynature/niagara-escarpment/niagara-glen-nature-reserve/

The trail descends into the depths of the Niagara Gorge.  Only by walking along the river can you appreciate the raw power of the current and the majesty of the Whirlpool.  A few years ago, I re-revisited the trail with a friend from Germany who I had met on the Camino and he was amazed by the experience.  Highly recommended but not for tourists in high heels.

After trying many restaurants, we have settled on one as the best.
Treadwell sources its food and wine from local suppliers.  The cuisine is of a very high standard - to the point where you slow down naturally in order to taste the food more fully.

The other place which is on our "must visit" list is the Avondale Dairy Bar.  No fake ice cream here: it has a 15% butterfat base. The place has been in business since 1956 ... and for a good reason!

Saudi Arabia - Signals of Continuing Change in its Relationship with the US

The US is gradually divesting itself of Saudi Arabia, or at least, of its dependence on oil.  There are several indicators of a sea change in America's attitude towards Saudi Arabia: the game changer of fracking, a growing disgust on the part of the general public with Saudi Arabia's medieval social policies and its export of fundamentalism.  The most recent signal is captured here.  It is one of an escalating series of signals that will inflame American opinion and no manner of Saudi-funded public relations campaigns will be able to diffuse this trend.  Will China , Russia or India step in the fill the political vacuum?

In December 2002, a joint Senate-House intelligence committee published its findings on the horrendous 9/11 terrorist attacks, which included evidence of possible links between the government of Saudi Arabia and some of the 15 Saudis involved in the bombings of the Pentagon and Twin Towers that cost nearly 3,000 American lives. For national security reasons, the 28 pages detailing that information were never published. But they may be shortly and revive yet another intense examination of alleged Saudi support for anti-American terrorism. 
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/saudi-arabia-faces-the-missing-28-pages#sthash.Bta4U6RG.dpuf

The advent of capacity to move oil to tidewater terminals will revitalize Canadian oil producers.  They have made great strides in reducing extraction costs.  The present round of rationalization will eliminate the weak and position the sector to compete more effectively in international markets.  I doubt the extent to which the Saudis will be able to beggar the rest of the world oil producers through their efforts to expand their market share.  It is not sustainable from a financial viewpoint and certainly not from a international political perspective.  We are in for “interesting times”.

Look for the re-emergence of support for a southern pipeline from Canada as the US seeks to strengthen its energy security.

Update on Input Capital

In a post dated April 12, 2016 I recounted a conversation that I had with a seasoned investor.  We had differing views about the value of Input Capital.

Here is the gist of my account:

I discussed the company with an experienced professional investor. He made two remarks:

• noted that the company had lost a major streaming contract that went south
• that why would he invest in such as company as he had great expertise in commodity trading - why engage the services of Input Capital?

I was too polite to take him to task at the table but here is my take:

• It is expected that young companies will encounter glitches along the early road, particularly those with pioneering business models.  
• I informed him gently that Input quickly moved to tighten its due diligence and to reduce the size of streaming contracts - also that it had negotiated many more contracts thereafter.  I was impressed by the ability of the company to learn and adjust its practices.

As to the "why" of investing in a company, the man was blinded by his outlook.  He looked at the company from a strictly personal point of view and ignored the possibility that others might have a different outlook.  To my mind, the company provides a retail investor with diversification to agricultural commodities (in this case, rape seed) and also the potential for gain due to the profitability of the company.  He is entitled to his opinion as I am to mine ... and thank heaven for that. As my father-in-law used to opine:  "That's why they make Fords and Chevs."  

Today, Input Capital issued a news release about its efforts to address the loss of three streaming agreements:

REGINA, May 11, 2016 /CNW/ - Input Capital Corp. ("Input") (TSX Venture: INP) (US: INPCF) is pleased to announce that it has now substantially resolved the largest of the three streaming contracts which were terminated in November 2015.

As a result of management's determined collection efforts related to this streaming contract, the following results have been achieved:

In late March, Input took titled possession of approximately 2,000 acres of farmland;

On May 1, a farm equipment auction was held in which approximately 60% of the equipment held as security was auctioned. The auction was very successful, with over 800 bidders registered to bid and gross sales exceeding the expectations of the auctioneer; and late yesterday, the titles to approximately 3,000 acres of additional farmland were transferred to Input.

Input has taken possession of the balance of the equipment and is planning a second auction for June 2016.

The 5,000 acres of farmland now owned by Input have been rented to local farmers for the 2016 growing season. Input plans to market the land for sale after harvest and has already had several inquiries from potential purchasers.

Management expects that the proceeds of the auctions and the planned land sales will result in a complete recovery of Input's capital associated with this streaming contract.

http://s1.q4cdn.com/784243260/files/doc_news/Input-Capital-Corp-Announces-Account-Resolution.pdf

Enough said.  The market reacted very positively.  

The Future Job Market - What do you tell your kids ... or yourself? Part Two

Academic Achievement

Some Observations about PhDs

If you’re a grad student, it’s best to read the latest report from the National Science Foundation with a large glass of single-malt whiskey in hand. Scratch that: The top-shelf whiskey is probably out of your budget.

This is the lead for a recent article in The Atlantic entitled Jobs Are Scarce for Ph.D.s. 

The article cites a few sobering findings in National Science Foundation (US) survey entitled Doctorate Recipients from US Universities.  It is an annual survey of people who have recently received their doctorates.

• almost 40 percent of graduates had not secured employment upon graduating
• debt loads were high, especially in education and the humanities
• the number of doctorates in the US is increasing each year
• those who decide to toil on in academe in the faint hope of landing a tenure track position, find themselves in low wage jobs 

This article and a few others published in recent years in The Atlantic may be somewhat sensational and not reflective of realities over time.  The long-term prospects of graduates are bright once they get established in the work place - something that might take a few years. Further, while Ph.D.s might not find employment in their specific field of study, their skill sets are usually transferrable to jobs in unrelated fields.  The following article presents a more realistic assessment: How Good Are the Job Prospects for Science Ph.D.s?

I have had to good fortune to work with many scientists who landed jobs related to their academic specialities. Most of them do not work in universities but those who do, generally worked on applied problems.  As a general observation, they are among the happiest, most satisfied people I have ever met in the work force.  And if ever they decide to "graduate" to management, the transition is usually fairly easy as they have a capacity to acquire the formal credentials for advancement e.g. MBAs etc.

Here is a snapshot of the situation in Canada.

Where Are Canada’s PhDs Employed?

It all comes down to following one's heart and interests.  Usually, everything works out in the long run.

One Last Thought 

Some naive doctoral students labour on in the hope that they will obtain faculty positions upon graduation.  If they do not graduate from a prestigious university, their chances of landing on the tenure track are remote.

These facts bring up an uncomfortable question for nonelite universities, which account for the large majority of all Ph.D.-granting institutions. Both Clauset’s and Oprisko’s research suggests most universities are not very successful at generating professors, and most people only get doctorates because they intend to go into academia. Should these lower-prestige institutions even bother granting Ph.D.s at all?
The Academy’s Dirty Secret

Masters Degree 

This is one of the best and most comprehensive articles I have encountered to date.

Should I get a master’s degree?

It addresses the wage premium over undergraduate degrees for a wide variety of occupations.

The financial rewards for getting a graduate degree are compelling. However, if one is interested in employment following graduation, one should ensure that the academic studies have content which is relevant to the job market - especially if a thesis is involved.

Look Before You Leap

Many students accept blindly, the recommendations of their thesis advisors - people whose outlook is often confined to their personal academic interests.  I can't believe the number of students who are seduced by a professor's offer of a jointly published article based on the student's labours.  I ditched my first advisor after two months. I commenced work on a topic recommended by him only to find that he was planning the use the literature review (a component of any thesis) as input to a contract that he had with an outside agency.  It's amazing how the grapevine works, especially if one establishes good relationships with support staff, the lifeblood of most organizations.

It is much better to decide on a thesis topic on one's own and then search out the best person to advise you on your work.  The topic should be relevant to prospective employers and be on the cutting edge.  The best sources of information on potential topics do not include the professorate.  Rather, it is best to survey trade publications and people who actually work in your field of interest. On a few occasions, I have seen industry and organizations actively supporting thesis work.  This happened to me and it meant a great deal, especially as the work was "useful" and not relegated to the archives of a graduate department.

Culture of Fear and Loathing - There is an Alternative

It would seems that the politics of hope has faded from public dialogue in much of Americas and Europe (with the possible exception of "sunny ways" in Canada.)

Very early one morning I was reading a wonderful book by Marilynne Robinson entitled The Giveness of Things - Essays.

The following passage leaped off the page. 

Cultural pessimism is always fashionable, and, since we are human, there are always grounds for it.  It has the negative consequence of depressing the level of aspiration, the sense of the possible.  And from time to time it has the extremely negative consequence of encouraging a kind of somber panic, a collective dream-state in which resource to terrible remedies is inspired by delusions of mortal threat.  If there is anything in the life of any culture or period that gives good grounds for alarm, it is the rise of cultural pessimism, whose major passion is bitter hostility toward many or most of the people within the very culture the pessimists always feel they are intent on rescuing.  When panic on one side is creating alarm on the other, it is easy to forget that there are always as good grounds for optimism as for pessimism - exactly the grounds, in fact - that is, because we are human.  We still have every potential for good we have ever had, and the same presumptive claim to respect, our own respect and one another's.   We are still creatures of singular interest and value, agile of soul as we have always been and as we will continue to be despite our errors and depredations, for as long as we abide on this earth.  To value one another is our greatest safety, and to indulge in fear and contempt is our gravest error.  

This is the thread which lead people the world over to value speeches by the likes of Abraham Lincoln and Martin Luther King in the past and that will likely inspire similar treasures  in the future.  It reflects the better side of human nature and is why the human experiment has been so successful.  

The Future Job Market - What do you tell your kids ... or yourself? Part One

This is the first in a series of posts on the topic.

Introduction

During my second year of university, I learned an important lesson. I went to my academic advisor with a question, What should I do to prepare myself for a future job?

To his credit, my advisor said,  I don't know because I've never been on the open job market.

This started a personal journey which continues today.

It started with a decision to chart my own path - to take on personal responsibility for my future.  There were two key aspects to this:

• to follow my heart with the thought that things will work out in the end
• to work hard and be as good as I could be at what I did

As it happened, I was hired right out of school on a dream job: laying out the optimum route for a renowned hiking trail.  Imagine ... getting paid for a labour of love!  It all happened by accident.  As part of my thesis, I sent out a questionnaire to learn about the hiking behaviour of a hiking club.  One of the randomly-selected recipients worked for a government agency charged with the task of developing  land use plan for region through which the trail ran .... I received a request for an interview ... 

Following that, I  had had a succession of paid jobs that were, with one exception, something to look forward to with each new day.

In the following series of posts, I will write about strategies which I and others have adopted - lessons that were useful to pass on to people we mentored and our children.

The Future Job Market and the Future Nature of Work

Question: What do you want to be when you grow up?  

Answer:  I can't tell you because that job has yet to be invented.

While one can follow one's heart and try to be the best in one's field, there is also the question of balancing one's desires against the realities of the job market ... or the market for goods and services if one decides to strike out on one's own.

In assessing the future labour market, most people end their investigations at tables which predict demand and pay rates for various occupations.  A more nuanced approach is required, especially if one is to survive in tomorrow's working environment.

Here are a few considerations:

1.   Automation

This will change the nature of the work place.  Here is a wonderful graphic from the Visual Capitalist:
Automation Potential and Wages for US Jobs

The graphic is based on Four fundamentals of workplace automation, a report on an ongoing study by McKinsey & Company.  (You will have to register free of charge in order to read the article.  It will also allow you to subscribe to some excellent research reports which are issued periodically.)

Here are some observations:

As the automation of physical and knowledge work advances, many jobs will be redefined rather than eliminated—at least in the short term.

Our results to date suggest, first and foremost, that a focus on occupations is misleading. Very few occupations will be automated in their entirety in the near or medium term. Rather, certain activities are more likely to be automated, requiring entire business processes to be transformed, and jobs performed by people to be redefined, much like the bank teller’s job was redefined with the advent of ATMs.

The report looks at four things:

1. The automation of activities: an analysis of 2000 work activities and their potential for automation.
2. The redefinition of jobs and business processes: automation will redefine how jobs are performed.
3. The impact on high wage occupations: Our work to date suggests that a significant percentage of the activities performed by even those in the highest-paid occupations (for example, financial planners, physicians, and senior executives) can be automated by adapting current technology.
4. The future of creativity and meaning: Creativity and sensing human emotions are difficult to automate.  

It is not appreciated generally how artificial intelligence can alter the nature of future work.  It already has a prominent place in environments where decisions have to be made very quickly in rapidly changing environments.  For example, the military routinely uses algorithms in weapons guidance systems.  No profession will be immune to the AI applications, including lawyers.  LawGeex  is an Israeli company that has developed a platform for reviewing legal contracts. 

LawGeex is the world's first AI contract review platform, helping individuals and businesses get a fair deal before signing an agreement.

LawGeex combines machine learning algorithms with crowd-sourced data, text analytics, and the knowledge of expert lawyers to make in-depth contract reviews accessible to everyone. By providing a plain English explanation of what clauses may be unusual, problematic, or missing, LawGeex ensures that people understand exactly what they’re agreeing to before signing, helping them negotiate a better deal.

Make sure to read the FAQs section on the company's website.  

In the medical field, the use of artificial intelligence has great promise, especially if the developers of various applications can integrate them with existing decision-making processes i.e. doctors are "indoctrinated" with an "I'm in control" approach to their practice of medicine - they will tolerate applications which bolster their decision-making but will oppose anything which threatens to erode their autonomy.  See this:

Artificial Intelligence Is Now Telling Doctors How to Treat You

2.  Globalization

International trade agreements and technological innovation have transformed the workplace.  

• talent can be accessed from almost anywhere at any time
• competition has the potential to lower wages in high cost jurisdictions except for high level management (my opinion)
• increasingly, it will lead to "virtual teams" linked by technology 
• outsourcing will continue to increase, especially for knowledge workers (at the same time, robotics has the potential to repatriate offshore manufacturing to North America and Europe where it makes business sense)
• it will demand skills related to "how" products and services are tailored to meet the demands of specific markets

3.  Corporate Structure 

There has been a transformation in the work place.  In their efforts to right size many corporations have trashed concepts such as worker loyalty, continuity in the work force, and idea innovation from within. There has also been a tremendous increase in the number of contract workers and consultants.  What to do by way of preparing for this environment?  

The following paper provides an interesting perspective on the nature of work and its demands in three types of organizations: large corporations,  social and environmental ethically-based organizations, and small specialist organizations designed to work in networks.  The reality is that the three classifications are not mutually exclusive but it is useful starting point for thinking about one's "fit" with a given working style.  

The future of work - A journey to 2022

4.   Demographics of the Workplace 

Much has been written on this topic so I will not dwell on it in depth.  A few observations:

• labour legislation and economic insecurity will result in a larger cadre of older workers
• in some countries where immigration cannot supplement the workforce, there will be a premium on retaining high value employees

These are but a few of the "qualitative" aspects of the work environment which should be taken into account when charting one's future course.  

In a future post, I will address other topics such as "self assessment" and "networking".

5.  The Best Jobs Have Yet to be Invented

"There is no future in any job. The future lies in
the person who holds the job." - George W. Crane

One of my primary complaints with higher education is that they tend to prepare students for jobs of the past. The way a Midwesterner would phrase it, “they are constantly shooting behind the duck.”

These two sentences are the fanfare for an interesting article:
Future jobs which don't exist today

The prognostications of futurists are interesting but useful only in the sense that they are intended to generate thought about things to come.

It is tempting to prepare one's self for targeted jobs to the exclusion of all else.  The approach is unproductive as the nature of future jobs is subject to change.

A more productive approach is to look at general trends and then assemble skills sets and a mental attitude to adapt to emerging opportunities.

Even better, it is best to follow one's heart and interests and be the best one can be.

I can remember when I took this gamble after having abandoned my graduate studies.  I was dissatisfied with the course work and after a year in the work place, I returned to school with a resolve to follow my heart.  That decision led to a wonderful opportunity and opened the door to a series of other jobs which were a real joy.

My son is on the same track.  His present occupation was not on the job boards ten years ago ... or even five ... it is literally a work in progress. In a very real sense, he is defining himself as he goes. Fortunately  his organization has the capacity to recognize value and to give him rein to explore new possibilities.

Update on Arotech (ARTX)

In the last edition of The Financial Passage Maker I presented a letter by Ephriam Fields, an activist investor.  It was addressed to the Directors of Arotech and dated February 23, 2016.
https://www.accesswire.com/436975/Ephraim-Fields-Criticizes-Recent-Arotech-Financing

Fields made the following points:

• Criticizes selling 5.7% stake at below market prices to "friendly" shareholder
• Criticizes failure to mention Consulting and Voting Agreements in press release
• Questions Board entrenchment nature of the financing
• Believes effective sale price significantly below $1.99 per share
• Questions need to pay up to $375,000 in "consulting fees"
• Pleased with the addition of Jon Kutler to the Board

The letter concluded:

ARTX shareholders deserve a Board that is committed to acting in the best interests of all shareholders, and we firmly believe that electing our nominees is in the best interests of ARTX's shareholders, employees, customers and other stakeholders, because it will bring fresh insights to help address the prolonged underperformance.

On March 28, 2016 it was announced that the proxy contest had been settled.

Under terms of the Agreement, Mr. Lawrence F. Hagenbuch, a nominee on Mr. Fields's proposed slate of directors, has joined Arotech's Board as a Class II director, and has been appointed to Arotech's Compensation, Nominating, and Executive and Finance Committees. In order to make room for Mr. Hagenbuch, Dr. Jay M. Eastman has stepped down from the Board. As part of the Agreement, Arotech and Admiralty Partners, Inc. will shorten their voting agreement by one year. Additionally, Mr. Fields will withdraw his slate of director nominees and will vote for the election of the slate of directors that will be nominated by Arotech at the 2016 Annual Meeting of Stockholders.
http://www.arotech.com/news/news-center/detail/1738/arotech-and-ephraim-fields-of-echo-lake-capital-settle

The market has responded positively.

It will be interesting to follow the progress of this company.  On two occasions, I have invested in companies that were later shaken up by activist investors.  The results were positive in both instances.  I got lucky.

Realizing the Best Returns on Discretionary Expenditures

There comes a point where most successful investors decide to spend some of their stash.  As my mother-in-law was wont to say, "Shrouds don't have pockets."

The question a few people might ask is, Where can I get the best return on my spend?

Several academic studies have addressed this issue.  Most of the literature reaches the following finding:

To live in the developed world is to live in a consumerist society. Although the broader forces that created this society have led to unprecedented material abundance, scholars have maintained that these benefits have come at a significant psychological cost. An important question, then, is how these psychological costs can be minimized. With that in mind, we review research showing that people derive more satisfaction from experiential purchases than material purchases. We then summarize the findings of an extensive program of research on the psychological mechanisms that underlie this difference. This research indicates that experiential purchases provide greater satisfaction and

happiness because: (1) Experiential purchases enhance social relations more readily and effectively than material goods; (2) Experiential purchases form a bigger part of a person’s identity; and (3) Experiential purchases are evaluated more on their own terms and evoke fewer social comparisons than material purchases. We conclude by discussing how social policy might be altered to take advantage of the greater hedonic return offered by

experiential investments, thus advancing societal well-being.

A wonderful life: experiential consumption and the pursuit of happiness by 

Thomas Gilovich, Amit Kumar, and Lily Jampol

The above-noted article is worth reading in its entirety.  

Some Potential Strategies to Achieve Best Returns

1. Reduce discretionary expenditures on "stuff" by simplifying one's life (there is a bountiful literature on this topic which is readily accessible) 
2. Look for alternative ways to enjoy the benefits provided by "stuff" without having to own it e.g. use Uber or short-term rentals instead of purchasing a car, rent cottages, use lending libraries for tools, books etc. 
3. Spend more on experiential purchases, especially if it gives joy to others who are close to you

There is another dimension of "spending" and that is "giving".   Here is an insightful article. on the topic.   One of the propositions advanced is that it is more a question of "how" than "how much".

Giving—and thoughtful, generous giving at that—may be more rewarding than receiving on numerous levels, from the neural, to the personal, to the social. And would a more generous, so to speak, gift be even more rewarding than a less generous one?

The Psychology Behind Gift-Giving and Generosity

Of course, there is yet another dimension to giving - the business of extracting donations on the part of charitable organizations.  The following article provides what might be to some, a rather cynical perspective on a multi-billion $ business sector. 

Getting Into a Benefactor’s Head 

To end this post on a more positive note, I would recommend the following book: 

Good Things Happen to Good People: The Exciting New Research that Proves the Link Between Doing Good and Living a Longer, Healthier, Happier Life by Stephen G.Post.

I came across this book while reading one of Prem Watsa's missives.