Friday, 27 May 2016

Saudi Arabia - Signals of Continuing Change in its Relationship with the US

The US is gradually divesting itself of Saudi Arabia, or at least, of its dependence on oil.  There are several indicators of a sea change in America's attitude towards Saudi Arabia: the game changer of fracking, a growing disgust on the part of the general public with Saudi Arabia's medieval social policies and its export of fundamentalism.  The most recent signal is captured here.  It is one of an escalating series of signals that will inflame American opinion and no manner of Saudi-funded public relations campaigns will be able to diffuse this trend.  Will China , Russia or India step in the fill the political vacuum?

In December 2002, a joint Senate-House intelligence committee published its findings on the horrendous 9/11 terrorist attacks, which included evidence of possible links between the government of Saudi Arabia and some of the 15 Saudis involved in the bombings of the Pentagon and Twin Towers that cost nearly 3,000 American lives. For national security reasons, the 28 pages detailing that information were never published. But they may be shortly and revive yet another intense examination of alleged Saudi support for anti-American terrorism. 
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/saudi-arabia-faces-the-missing-28-pages#sthash.Bta4U6RG.dpuf

The advent of capacity to move oil to tidewater terminals will revitalize Canadian oil producers.  They have made great strides in reducing extraction costs.  The present round of rationalization will eliminate the weak and position the sector to compete more effectively in international markets.  I doubt the extent to which the Saudis will be able to beggar the rest of the world oil producers through their efforts to expand their market share.  It is not sustainable from a financial viewpoint and certainly not from a international political perspective.  We are in for “interesting times”.

Look for the re-emergence of support for a southern pipeline from Canada as the US seeks to strengthen its energy security.

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