I have been holding back on investing in agricultural equipment manufacturers, having only a small positions in Rocky Mountain Equipment (stock is priced below book value) and Clean Seed Capital (which is suffering while bringing a new product to a depressed market). Why?
The following says it all:
Producers’ negative sentiment was further borne out by their perspective on making large investments in their farming operations. The percentage of producers that viewed now as a good time to make large investments declined to 22 percent from 26 percent a month earlier, while the percentage that viewed now as a bad time to make large investments increased to 74 percent from 69 percent in March. When combined these responses pushed the Large Farm Investment Index to a reading of 48 in April, 9 points lower than in March and the fourth weakest reading of the investment index since fall 2015.
At present, the outlook for agriculture in North America is bleak; however, things change. When things improve, the pent up demand for new equipment will present tremendous investment opportunities. Equipment manufacturers have learned to manage their way through tough times as have farmers who are not as indebted as they were in the last agricultural recession.
A list of potential investments in agriculture are presented elsewhere in this blog. The good times will return.
China, the US and trade in a dog-eat-dog world
Unlike trade deals signed under Mr Trump’s predecessors, this one calls for no third parties to be involved. Each country will be licensed to decide when the other is in breach. Having sought a reset with China, Mr Trump would be enshrining a diet of endless tit-for-tat. If ever there was a blueprint for bilateral instability, the coming US-China deal would qualify.
Walking away: Greenfield lot defaults hit 27 per cent in Melbourne
Things are not well with the property development industry in Australia. This chart is astonishing.
One in four new home buyers in Sydney and Melbourne is defaulting on their housing lot purchases due mainly to financing and valuation shortfalls, forcing developers to resell these lots in a market where monthly sales rates have hit seven-year lows, new figures show.
Trading Economics - great source of economic data
Comparative Statistics on Inflation, Employment etc.
Trading Economics provides comprehensive information with economic data for 196 countries. The link opens an interactive table that provides a snapshot of conditions in these countries. The site is very rich - well worth exploring.
See why life is not easy in Argentina. Current interest rates are 71.87 percent. Approximately one third of Argentinians are now living in poverty ... quite the change from the 1930's when a common phrase was "rich as an Argentine".
then ...
now ...
Trump's Lies About Who Pays for Tariffs - What American and Canadian Consumers Pay for the Same Item
This Week in Trumponomics
The foregoing article is only one of many from the "right" and the "left" chastising the President for his recent statements about the impact of tariffs. In the end, it's the consumer who will pay.
The farming community has been devastated by retaliatory measures implemented by countries in Trump's tariff crosshairs and now, the impact will spread to the broader public.
The more insidious and serious aspect of Trump's seat-of-the-pants policy making involves the long-term reliability of the US as a trading partner. Going forward, this capricious action in the absence of a long-term strategy which seeks to develop alliances with other trading nations concerned about China will be a concern for many countries. Given that there are many other countries with steadier records of performance in international trade, it is reasonable to expect that companies everywhere will look at diversifying supply chains and marketing channels.
An Experiment in Cost Comparison
A few days ago, I bought an inverter for my boat. It was made in China. Yesterday, I checked the price for the unit on Amazon.com and Amazon.ca. There was a significant price difference for exactly the same item.
Americans pay the equivalent of $254 Cdn. Canadians pay $205 Cdn.
Until Trump's announcement, it was generally accepted that most things are cheaper in the US than in Canada, or at least, the same ...
Another comparison: This tower surge protector was $US 55.95 on ebay in the US https://www.ebay.com/itm/8-Outlet-Surge-Protector-Bestek-Electric-Power-Strip-Block-USB-Port-Charging/323191858205?epid=28031751992&hash=item4b3fbc641d:g:TPoAAOSwPhpaxo4Y and $Cdn 54.94 in Canada's Amazon site. The difference in price is $Cdn 20.05!
Test yourself to see how quickly Trump's tariffs will strain American pockets.
Useful Source of Information for ETF's
EFTdb.com is one of the sources I use. It has a nice screener and provides a nice coverage of the ETF universe. The web site is designed thoughtfully: exceptionally well organized and easy to navigate as a result. The content provides many departure points for more in-depth research.
No comments:
Post a Comment