As part of my recent
portfolio review, I investigated the circumstances around winning investments. Here are some of my findings.
Anticipating
a Long-Term Trend and Drilling Down to Find the Best Prospects
By far and away, this
approach led to my most rewarding gains. It is the result of extensive reading. I consult a variety of sources ranging
from trade journals, local/regional news outlets, government
statistical reports, think tanks and the like. I have NEVER found
initial “hints” in the financial press.
Once an emerging trend has
been identified, it usually takes a few years to develop a strategy to
exploit it. For example, with agriculture, I read for three years before I felt comfortable with committing to a program
of investing in specific sectors. There were many false starts. The process is still evolving, especially in the area of agricultural
logistics in South America.
In early 2003 I started to
look at precious metals with the thought they would get traction as
“safe haven” investments, especially given the proclivity of the
media to celebrate turmoil throughout the world ... if it bleeds, it
leads.
I started to learn all I
could about gold and silver mining and developed a “mental model”
which encompassed various facets of the industry. It was then a
matter of investigating potential investments in explorers, juniors,
intermediates, and major producers as well as bullion. (I never did
get to the point of investigating services and equipment companies.)
As soon as Silver Wheaton came on the horizon, I looked hard, liked
the concept, and established a core position at under $4 per share in
2005. Ditto for the Central Fund of Canada (2003, $6.65). I decided
to speculate in exploration and junior companies and got lucky as
some of them were bought out by majors looking to replenish/expand
their reserves. In looking back last week, I barely recognized some
of the company names I had purchased even though some of the gains
had been significant.
As you can see from the gold
chart http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html some of the periodic declines in the price of gold over the past decade were rather heart stopping.
Nevertheless, I held on to my core positions, and will continue to do
so until I see a fundamental change in underlying conditions viz the
continuing threat of financial instability and inflation; loss of
faith in fiat currencies, continued uptake of precious metals by
residents of newly affluent nations with cultural attitudes favouring
gold; greater sensitivity of the public to unforeseen or tumultuous
events.
I ended my forays
into exploration, junior and intermediate producers once financing
became a challenge for them. It was a fundamental game changer, but
not one which has affected bullion and royalty-based companies such
as Silver Wheaton. They are pure plays on financial insecurity –
something which still prevails as a chronic condition on the world
stage.
I figure that the need to
refurbish and rebuild our infrastructure is a very significant trend.
The power grid is essential to our well-being. Ditto for bridges.
Ditto for the movement of goods: pipelines, rail cars.
Manufacturers, engineering companies, and materials suppliers have been added to the Financial Log Book.
There is not much likelihood that foreign companies with offshore
operations will impede domestic companies for a variety of reasons.
There is every indication that patience will be rewarded, especially
as the companies have excellent financials and astute management.
The
Lesson
- Read voraciously and develop a “view” about major trends and the potential for investments.
- Develop a mental model to characterize potential investment themes as a framework for more detailed investigation.
- Drill down to identify and assess specific companies for investment.
- Manage risk taking into account the size of companies, their volatility ... and make sure that you invest only in companies with experienced management with a successful track record.
- Don't be deterred by fluctuations in price as major trends will ultimately trump short-term market sentiment.
- Be vigilant about potential changes in trends as they generally insinuate themselves quietly but with deadly results – something like cancer.
- Do take profits, especially if you have the opportunity to diversify your portfolio with other promising investments (but don't diversify for the sake of diversification ... a mug's game) ... and it's always nice to reward yourself or favoured others with treats.
Good
Companies Satisfying Enduring Needs
Warren Buffet has profited
mightily by investing in companies of this nature. With the
experience of owning positions in companies such as Saputo, Northwest
Company, Nestle, and the like I have started to look for additional
investments of a similar nature with the view of having them dominate
my portfolios. I have been impressed by the power of steadily
increasing dividends coupled with stock prices which have exceeded
handily, the ravages of inflation.
Here are a few
characteristics I look for: low debt, strong cash flow, a wide “moat”
against competition, superb management, an internationally diverse
market base with exposure to emerging markets, an easy-to-understand
business model, a steadily increasing record of regularly paid
dividends. I find that the value approach is perhaps, the most
useful technique to use in ferreting out potential investments.
The
Lesson
- The power of steadily increasing, regular dividends is impressive and can shield you during down times in the market.
- While sales may decline slightly during market downturns, they recover quickly thereafter as they are focused on meeting basic needs.
- There are few companies of this nature. This facilitates the selection process.
I have written at length
about stock screeners and especially, about those which can assist
you in identifying great dividend paying companies. (See Stock
Screeners.) You need only read the writings of Warren Buffet and the
Investment Zoo by Stephen Jarislowsky to get a great start.
Speculation
Can Be Rewarding
I have made impressive gains
by speculating, mainly in mining companies. The key was in
identifying a trend backed by a good story and in getting in early
but not too early. In my early ventures, I made the mistake of
getting overly greedy and over-confident and not taking profits ...
or at least, managing my gains. The breakthrough came as a result of
reading more about the industry and about speculation.
I hit the mother-load with
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, a
remarkable book about Jesse Livermore, one of America's most
successful speculators. With maturity, Livermore started to
speculate on trends as opposed to the daily/hourly market action
(although his skill in reading markets undoubtedly contributed to his
success). I cannot “put a finger” on Livermore's approach as it
is only acquired by repeated reading, creative dreaming, and
practical experience. If you want the short hand version of
Livermore to get you started, there is no better place than this:
The
Lesson
- Read voraciously to identify a trend.
- Learn all you can about the trend (who, what, where, when ... and most important ... why).
- Manage your risk by betting only what you are prepared to lose and temper the size of your bet according to your perception of risk.
- Develop a system and maintain your discipline.
- Recognize that “windows for speculation” for most retail investors are not all that common. Look for manias.
I find that situations for
speculation come up about once every two years. By no means do I
regard this activity as anything but a sideline to my mainline
investing activity. This said, I am working on “new boat” fund
... but unless I am really lucky, the new boat won't float for many
years, if then.
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