Risky assets are reacting more strongly to hawkish monetary shocks from the Federal Reserve in recent years, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The reason, ironically, is that the Fed is losing its forecasting edge.
The Fed’s relative predictive advantage versus private economists has declined in recent years as the higher quality and quantity of forecasters makes it harder for anyone, including Fed staff, to beat the “wisdom of the crowd,” Goldman economists including Jan Hatzius and David Choi wrote in a note April 20. It also means that after hawkish monetary shocks, such as a surprise rate hike or indication of higher rates, markets tend to react more negatively and consensus growth forecasts now decline, they said.
Sources of Qualitative Information to Assist with Investment Research
Increasingly, I look to qualitative sources of information as part of my quest for profitable investments.
While the financial information presented in a company's filings is indispensable, it is subject to manipulation by crafty accountants. Further, financial metrics are only part of the story. Generally speaking, I am far more interested in the quality of management, strategic positioning, competition, customer reaction to products/services etc.
Here are two sites that I visit routinely during my research. There are others. For example, I visit regional and trade business publications which publish annual articles on the fastest growing companies, some of which are listed on stock exchanges. That is how I discovered Questor Technology several years ago. It's a wonderful company with great management and in a strategic sweet spot. It is quietly expanding its reach into new markets, something that will be reflected in its financial returns in 2019.
Buzz Indexes
The BUZZ NextGen AI process™ applies proprietary machine learning models across vast large scale datasets to identify patterns, trends and changing sentiment which can affect market based outcomes, providing the foundation for superior investment returns.
Glassdoor is another site which presents an opportunity for present and past employees to review companies and their management.
The Gold Mining Industry
The following article provides a nice overview of the recent history of the gold industry: an unhappy co-incidence of poor management decisions and declining commodity prices.
Can the gold industry return to the golden age?
3 Obstacles Facing Urban Agriculture in New York City
Results of a new study in New York suggest that urban agriculture may not be able to provide the bevy of benefits that have excited consumers and enticed investors.
This sector has attracted a lot of attention recently. Other than CO2 GRO, I've yet to find an attractive investment in the space. The cost of real estate, high operating costs (energy and HVAC) and price points have created significant headwinds which may not offset differentials in transportation costs associated with traditional greenhouses and field crops. However, in some exceptional situations (e.g. parts of the Middle East) where there is a limited potential for other forms of agriculture and where food security is paramount, urban agriculture may be viable.
Robots Come to Walmart
In order to cut costs Walmart has resorted to robots to clean floors, unload delivery trucks, inventory shelf stocks and fulfill customer orders.
Warehouse automation is worth investigating for potential investments. It is complex.
The Complete Guide to Warehouse Automation: Basics of Organization and Warehouse Labeling, Automation Technologies, Best Practices, and More
The Truth About Dentistry
Many standard dental treatments—to say nothing of all the recent innovations and cosmetic extravagances—are likewise not well substantiated by research. Many have never been tested in meticulous clinical trials. And the data that are available are not always reassuring.
The Cochrane organization, a highly respected arbiter of evidence-based medicine, has conducted systematic reviews of oral-health studies since 1999. In these reviews, researchers analyze the scientific literature on a particular dental intervention, focusing on the most rigorous and well-designed studies. In some cases, the findings clearly justify a given procedure. For example, dental sealants—liquid plastics painted onto the pits and grooves of teeth like nail polish—reduce tooth decay in children and have no known risks. (Despite this, they are not widely used, possibly because they are too simple and inexpensive to earn dentists much money.) But most of the Cochrane reviews reach one of two disheartening conclusions: Either the available evidence fails to confirm the purported benefits of a given dental intervention, or there is simply not enough research to say anything substantive one way or another.
It is worth visiting Cochrane. It is one of the go-to sources of information for unbiased opinions on a wide variety of medical treatments:
Cochrane is for anyone interested in using high-quality information to make health decisions. Whether you are a doctor or nurse, patient or carer, researcher or funder, Cochrane evidence provides a powerful tool to enhance your healthcare knowledge and decision making.
Cochrane’s 13,000 members and over 50,000 supporters come from more than 130 countries, worldwide. Our volunteers and contributors are researchers, health professionals, patients, carers, and people passionate about improving health outcomes for everyone, everywhere. Our global independent network gathers and summarizes the best evidence from research to help you make informed choices about treatment and we have been doing this for 25 years.
The following link provides an index for topics addressed by Cochrane:
Cochrane Library
No comments:
Post a Comment