Good Reads 1 - March 2019

The Broyhill Letter 2019

I was so impressed by the annual letter from Broyhill Asset Management that I immediately subscribed to their e-mail distribution list in order to receive more regular offerings.

This one is interesting:
Late Cycle Behavior

Oaktree Capital Group (OAK) is mentioned in the annual letter.  It has been a significant member of the crew for many years.  I purchased for it two primary reasons: the quality of its management, and the prospect (hope) that the Group will perform well during periods of economic turmoil.  It seems as if the boys at Broyhill also subscribe to this thesis.  Meanwhile, I collect substantial dividends while waiting for the playing field to tilt in favour of OAK.

I will add some of Broyhill's other holdings to a watch list and will undertake my due diligence before deciding whether or add them to my portfolios.

I maintain a substantial stash of cash in order to position myself for purchases when the general market heads south and sentiment sours.  My sense is that these value stocks will be fall in concert with other more less resilient entities with the result that they will be even more attractive.  Again, my strategy is heavily influenced by Howard Marks and his Mastering the Market Cycle.  

Speculators Anonymous 

An interesting site maintained by Adem Turkeman.

Our tone is cynical and skeptical. Putting it simply – we don’t believe (not trust) the mainstream at first glance. 

We also believe that in order to make outsized gains you must go against the crowd – doing the kind of things that most find very uncomfortable. That’s where the opportunities are. 

Contrarian sites are a dime a dozen but this one does not follow the tracks of "Chicken Little" by wandering in fear inspired circles.  It is thoughtful - well worth visiting from time to time ... or you can subscribe to newsletters as I have.

Turkeman's schedule is much like mine.  When I started investing, I would arise at around 2:00 AM and work until 4:00 - a period which was quiet and when my thoughts could roam freely.  After 8 years of that routine, I started earning more from investing than from my wages.  It's a habit that continues to this day.

WTO RULES CHINA GAVE ITS GROWERS UNFAIR WHEAT AND RICE SUBSIDIES

“Today’s ruling is a huge win at a time when such wins are sorely needed,” said House Agriculture Chairman Collin Peterson, adding, “It’s also my hope that this ruling can help our negotiators reach a positive path forward to reopen trade with China and reclaim the markets that the trade war has cost our farmers.”

The impact of this ruling has yet to be determined.  My bet is that China will rag the puck but ... retaliatory tariffs on the part of the US could ratchet up pressure for change.

An Interesting Take on Brexit 

Der Spiegel often provides an interesting perspective on global affairs - one which differs from viewpoints expressed in North America and the UK.  This one is especially interesting:

Ivan Rogers on Brexit

As the UK ambassador to the European Union, Ivan Rogers had a front-row seat as Brexit negotiations got underway. In an interview, he speaks with DER SPIEGEL about the mistakes made in London and the huge challenges that remain.