Trip Planning Made Easier

I invest a lot of time in planning our trips.

A few tools of the trade.

Google My Maps

This is a fabulous free service.  It has been a game changer.

It is a quick and easy way to record one's research quickly and then to plan efficacious travel routes.  Further, one can use the maps for navigation when on the road.

I use Google My Maps to:

• mark the places I'd like to visit and add supplementary notes about those locations e.g. links to sources of detailed information, and personal comments
• have separate map layers e.g. one for accommodation, one for historical sites, restaurants etc.  
• share itineraries with family and friends and seek advice from those who know the areas (you can forward maps to selected individuals or share them with the world at large - your choice)
• assist with navigation when I am underway

As I go about my research, I keep My Maps active in one window and then make additions to the map as I see fit.  

Once I am ready to travel, I download the map to my iPad and use the map off-line for navigation.  In Sicily, southern France, and the Carolinas, we found that the maps were superior to the on-board navigation systems in our rental cars.  

General Guidebooks

I generally ignore them.  For the most part, they are poorly written, characterless, and cover the obvious in light detail.  Besides they are heavy and bulky.  They are anachronisms in today's world of electronic communication. 

I do read travel accounts by artists and authors with a special love of features such as mills, barns, landscape history, ancient forests ... in short, things which take time to understand which, coupled with a love of subject, enable authors to produce something which is unique and worthwhile e.g. The Shepperd's Life: Dispatches from an Ancient Landscape by James Rebanks.  If ever you plan on visiting the Lake District in England, this is mandatory reading - in a small way it will help you to appreciate the grandeur of the place and the toil it takes to wrest a living from a sometimes unforgiving environment. 

Trip Advisor

Ah ... the wisdom of crowds.  This service is an excellent way to get a quick overview of the attractions in any area.  I use it to make a preliminary list of potential spots to visit.  It is far superior to most tourist guidebooks in that it is fast to use and always up to date.  

It will not provide detailed information and may miss items of special interest to people like me e.g. field patterns and evolution of landscapes, geomorphological features (my wife has learned to tolerate these interests ... the product of my training as a geographer).  

Google Scholar

This is an excellent search engine which has opened new avenues of understanding for me.  Nothing beats the insights provided by academics who have dedicated lifetimes of study in an effort to understand cherished interests. In many instances, the search engine directs you to abstracts in learned journals; however, there is often a charge to access the full articles.  I have discovered a workaround to avoid the charges: simply Google the author and visit their web site.  The articles listed in Google Scholar are posted there and are frequently free of charge.  Even better, I have found that, when contacted, the authors are more than willing to provide advice on selected readings and places to visit/things to see.  Most people are genetically predisposed to share ... and that's why knowledge has advanced so far and so quickly in western society. 

Specialised Web Sites

Here is an extensive list of travel-related sites:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/william-d-chalmers/worlds-101-best-travel-we_b_8931752.html

A few of my favourites include:

YouTube Travel Channel

The Times Travel

The Man in Seat Sixty-One

Guardian Travel - you can't go wrong with English newspaper travel sites 

I love slowtravel.  It is premised on the concept of remaining in one locale and savouring what it has to offer - this as opposed to scrambling about in an effort to "see it all" and, in the process, seeing very little.  In addition to trip reports and information on interesting accommodation, it provides a wealth of advice about the practicalities of travelling in various areas of the world.  

As to "foodie" websites - I ignore 'em.  One of the joys of travel is the process of discovery and serendipity.  The best way to find great food is to "ask".  

On a recent trip to Sicily, I was almost tearful over a dish of rabbit.  The process of discovery: while at a local bar, we asked the owner what wine he would serve to visiting relatives on a special occasion; we were amazed, and then asked him where he would take them to eat; we were directed down a dark alleyway to a pizza-style restaurant where I asked for the cook's speciality - what he was most proud to serve ... and then ... I had one of the best meals that I've ever eaten. 

Another story, again in Sicily: we were caught out late with no place to stay and one of our travelling companions went into a local house with rooms to rent; it was a beautiful modern house owned by a doctor and lawyer; once we settled in we asked for the best place to eat local food; Francesca directed us to the local supermarket and told us to say that she recommended their platter for four; she said that we could repair to the local bar and that the platter would be delivered there in short order .... and it was ... washed down with local wine, it was a meal not soon to be forgotten. And then there were the desserts in the local bar ... at times thoughts of not loosening one's belt are best left behind ... 

A Tip for Finding Accommodation - Just Ask

We learned this technique before the advent of the Internet.  When staying at small hotels or B&B's, we got into the habit of asking the owners for advice on where to stay at our next destination.  They were only too happy to oblige us and most often, they phoned ahead to make the reservations.  We usually ended up getting the best rooms and a hearty welcome, the result of becoming embedded into the "system".  

GPS Cameras

I always travel with a point and shoot compact camera with GPS capability in order to record the location of each shot.  It is then possible to download the shots to software such as iPhoto and see their locations on Google Maps. 

I don't have any reason to replace my five year old Panasonic Lumix, but if I were to buy a new machine, I'd look for the following traits:

• a compact camera that could be carried easily in a shirt pocket 
• a screen that is usable in bright sunlight 
• a CMOS sensor capable of recording scenes in low light 
• a zoom lens with an optical magnification of at least 4X's and a digital magnification in the same range (a combined magnification of 20x's is even better)
• image stabilization
• excellent lens capable of supporting poster-sized prints

The following characteristics are desirable:

• shock proof
• water proof
• full range of manual adjustments to over-ride automatic settings for those special situations
• HD video

While smart phones have advanced tremendously in recent years, they have yet to match the picture quality of dedicated cameras.  

New Blog - Living the Rich Life - always a voyage

I have started a new blog.  While I will continue to write about personal finances (including the management of a real life investment portfolio) an emphasis will be placed on the art of living life.

It will involve an eclectic range of topics ranging from travel to health, societal trends ... in short, things that make life interesting and techniques for negotiating the pathways of life.

The blog can be accessed here:

Living the Rich Life - always a voyage

Here's the headline photo:

This iconic sculpture on the Camino de Santiago de Compostela strides along the crest of the Alto Del Perdon, not far from Pamplona.  On the sculpture, there is an inscription:

donde se cruza el camino del viento con el de las estrellas
where the path of the wind crosses that of the stars

Portfolio Review Following Summer Travels: Northern Georgian Bay and the Yukon

There is more to life than investing.  It is a means to an end.

Northern Georgian Bay

Much of this summer was spent travelling around Northern Georgian Bay, one of the best fresh-water cruising areas in the world.  Within an hour from the marina where our boat is based, we can drop the anchor in a wilderness bay - the only neighbours are mink, beaver, Sandhill Cranes, the occasional black bear and the rocks and trees.  It is an idyllic place, but one where navigational hazards of various types can quickly bite the unprepared or unobservant.

I've gotten into the habit of taking early morning kayak trips while we are anchored out.  One morning, I got up close to a Sandhill Crane.  He took exception to my presence and squawked for several minutes, ducking behind rocks and trees, reappearing from time to time to check me out.  I heard a rustling in the reeds, a looked back to see this fisher not more than 10 metres away.  He showed no fear and I had the sense that, for a moment, he was appraising the situation from the viewpoint of one who occupies one of the top spots in his community.  It was a privilege to  have this experience - one which will be remembered for a long time to come.  Next year, I plan to "settle in" in that spot and do some calling to see if I can lure him in.  As you can see, these creatures are real killing machines: very athletic and well armed with sharp teeth and claws.

Paradiso is more or less a floating kayak platform.  It's perfect for our needs: no need for a generator while at rest due to energy efficient retro-fits and a solar panel mounted on the bimini which is also sufficient to power up the batteries for our electrically powered dinghy.  We can "stay out" for three weeks without needing to visit a dock for supplies and services.  

Here we are, nicely secured in an exceptionally sheltered location with fabulous views.  We stayed here almost a week and even though the westerlies blew at a sustained speed of 25 knots for two days, the boat moved only gently to some of the more powerful gusts.  And to think, we were approached only once by other people, a party of canoeists who got lost in the maze of islands in that part of The Bay.  

Yukon Canoe Trip

I've been in the habit of taking spring canoe trips each year.  This summer, I raised the idea of a trip to the Yukon with one of my canoe partners (annual trips since1978) and my son and his canoe buddy.  We decided on the Big Salmon River, a 350 km journey through pristine wilderness, far away from the distractions of roads and cell phone coverage.  

We flew from Toronto to Whitehorse via Vancouver and arrived on the same day at noon local time - time enough to buy needed supplies and equipment (at Toronto prices!). Next morning we took a four hour trip by road to the starting point on Quiet Lake ... and then we were on our own, a party of four canoeists with great expectations.  

The 11 day trip down this swift water river was wonderful: spectacular mountains framing both banks, thousands of spawning Chinook Salmon, many Bald Eagles, absolutely spotless campsites (I saw not one piece of litter), solitude (only one other party in view for a short time), easily navigated swifts (but one had to be quick to avoid sweepers in the upper sections of the river), the occasional trapper's cabin ...  

In this country, weather can be treacherous, but we were prepared with good equipment, including two exceptionally large tarpaulins which shrugged off the wind and rain and made life comfortable while we were on land.  

While we prefer to travel on our own, guided trips are readily available at fairly reasonable rates.  A shorter, easier river, the Teslin, is less demanding and is more suitable for less experienced canoeists.  It is an ideal first-time trip for people wishing to experience the Yukon wilderness, especially when accompanied by experienced wilderness guides.  

There are two main outfitters in Whitehorse.  Both offer guided trips in addition to equipment rentals:

Up North Adventures

Kanoe People

Coast Mountain Sports is a great source for equipment.  Their prices are comparable those offered by Mountain Equipment Co-op.  

On the basis of our experience, I would recommend that you make sure to have the following equipment in your kit:

• large tarpaulins and lots of line
• heavy duty rain gear capable of keeping you dry in cold and rainy weather
• a solar shower as the river is often much too cold for comfort
• rubber boots - the best footwear 
• a satellite-based emergency communications device: SPOT or InReach

Portfolio Review

• Winter has arrived.  At this time of year, I generally undertake an extensive review of our investment portfolios.  This process has been described in earlier posts. 

As part of the review, I assess holdings in terms of other investments with the potential for higher returns.

I follow two basic approaches:

• a "bottom up" approach using stock screeners to identify companies with appealing metrics 
• a "top down" approach where strategic themes are used to focus research

The bulk of the work consists of refining my research and undertaking due diligence.  

A few random observations:

• I read the financial press only very rarely
• I read a few financial blogs but only to get an idea of the writers' thinking processes
• I read a few hours each day with a focus on: international think tanks, trade/industry organizations, regional newspapers, resource geography, early stage investment companies
• In an effort to learn more about specific investment themes, I develop a "systems model" to identify the roles of various actors.  I will spend months/years sifting through a variety of sources: trade publications, scientific articles, regional/local press, company web sites of various types, financial reports etc.  
• Other than speculative activity (e.g. recent trading in precious metals mining companies) I rarely trade, preferring to hold companies for more than five years.  
• I have a high tolerance for fluctuations in the price of stocks within the portfolio and only change holdings if I detect a fault in my investment thesis.  This can be the result of faulty research/assumptions, changing conditions (management turnover, fundamental long-term changes in the market/sector, inability of companies to adjust to change or otherwise maintain a competitive position etc).  I pay almost no attention to cyclical variations in the sector, and if anything, add to my position when buying opportunities arise.  

At present, I am focusing on a few themes:

• agriculture
• infrastructure
• shipping

A Note About the Future of this Blog

I am thinking about writing a new blog to include a more expansive range of topics.  The outline is being refined.  In a few months, I'll post a few items.  

Silver - Better than Gold

A short note as I'm on my boat and busy with things other than investments.

Tremendous profits have been realized recently with precious metals. It's all about the theme of "safe haven" in the face of Brexit, turmoil in the oil and gas sector, an underlying sense the things are not well in the Middle East, and a belief that low interest rates will be with us for a few years yet.

Recently, I have invested fairly heavily in silver stocks. Why?

• a belief that production has declined as a result of a lower demand for base metals - silver is a byproduct of many base metal mines 
• a sense that the silver to gold ratio will gradually revert to the norm over time (to the benefit of a disproportionate increase in silver prices relative to gold)
• a sense that the investment world in awakening to the potential for gain by investing in silver (my experience has been that gold leads during the initial run-up in precious metals prices and that silver coat-tails once the trend has been established and that it outperforms gold thereafter)

In making decisions about Potential investments in silver companies, the following criteria are significant:

• experienced  management with a proven track record (note that many "duds" in the mining industry whose idiotic decisions brought their former companies to their knees have found employment in the same industry after being dismissed for subpar performance .... it literally pays to Google the executives of mining companies ... and if you see recycled duds on the executive roster of prospective "buys", run - don't walk away as history has a habit of repeating itself
• operations in stable countries with the rule of law
• active production with the potential for expansion at low cost 
• great balance sheets
• listings on both Canadian and American stock exchanges (Retail investors in the US are wont to stay close to home.  I figure that dual listings give companies a potential for greater gain than would be the case if listings were restricted to Canada)

In a future post I'll list some interesting companies. 

The Best of Niagara-on-the-Lake: a biased view

Profits from speculation in gold were put to good use recently - a visit to Niagara-on-the-Lake.

The Niagara River frontier was a focal point during the War of 1812.  The British side of the river was sprinkled with military fortifications at various strategic points.  A few of them are now protected by Parks Canada.  Other than a few sporadic maritime raids by Germans during WWI and WWII, the Niagara Frontier presented the only time when Canada (Upper Canada at the time) ever experienced directly a sustained period of war, a time when the security of settlements was threatened in a very real way (other than the Seven Years' War of the mid 1700's).  The threat of invasion from the United States is the reason why authorities decided to locate our national capital in Ottawa, well away from the border.  Read this.

Once a centre for governance in the early days of Upper Canada, the Town of Niagara-on-the-Lake has retained much of its original architecture: well-preserved churches and civic buildings dating from the early 1800's, clapboard houses set back from tree-lined streets, and a main street replete with shops and restaurants catering to well-heeled visitors, mostly WOOFIES - well off olde farts).

After staying at various places over the years (both on business and for pleasure) I have settled on a very well managed boutique hotel. The Harbour House is situated in a quiet area by the local yacht club.  The rooms are nicely appointed and a few of them have river views.  The breakfasts are delightful.  The hotel has a nice tradition: wine and cheese between 4:00 and 5:00 PM.  It presents guests with the opportunity to meet and share observations about life.

While we generally avoid the main street and shops of Niagara with the exception of a few restaurants and the theatre, we do make a valiant effort to sample wines.

If ever you plan to visit the area, here are some of the highlights which keep us coming back:

Big Head Wines is perhaps, the best winery in the area.  Its wines are made using the ripasso method and, without reservation, they are the best I've yet had the joy of tasting in the Niagara region.

Sunnybrook was one of the most memorable places that we visited. It specializes in fruit wines.  Initially, we were not impressed by the idea of fruit wines; however, once we left our prejudices behind and tasted a few of the offerings, we found that a new door had opened.  I especially like the peach and Bosc pear wines.  There are a variety of ways you can serve these wines: just use your imagination.  Once, while at Park City in Utah, I visited a shop which specialized in hot sauces. The owner suggested putting a drop or two of clear hot sauce in a glass of red or white wine.  I was a bit sceptical, but after trying the "recipe" I was hooked.  We have a bottle in the fridge for just that purpose - not all the time, but we resort to it sometimes when the wine might need a bit of a lift.  Try it.

Here is a complete list of the Niagara wineries: List

Another great attraction is the Shaw Festival. The Shaw Festival is a theatre company inspired by the work of Bernard Shaw. We produce plays from and about his era and contemporary plays that share Shaw’s provocative exploration of society and celebration of humanity.

The Shaw Festival presents plays in four distinctive theatres: the Festival Theatre – The Shaw’s flagship theatre, the historic Court House Theatre where The Shaw first began performing, the Royal George Theatre, modeled after an Edwardian opera house and the Studio Theatre, the home of our contemporary Shavians in our 175-seat most intimate space. All theatres are within a short walking distance of each other.

While there are numerous natural attractions such as the Niagara Falls and other sites managed by the Niagara Parks Commission, my favourite is the Niagara Glen.   Click also on the following link: http://www.tourniagara.com/geologynature/niagara-escarpment/niagara-glen-nature-reserve/

The trail descends into the depths of the Niagara Gorge.  Only by walking along the river can you appreciate the raw power of the current and the majesty of the Whirlpool.  A few years ago, I re-revisited the trail with a friend from Germany who I had met on the Camino and he was amazed by the experience.  Highly recommended but not for tourists in high heels.

After trying many restaurants, we have settled on one as the best.
Treadwell sources its food and wine from local suppliers.  The cuisine is of a very high standard - to the point where you slow down naturally in order to taste the food more fully.

The other place which is on our "must visit" list is the Avondale Dairy Bar.  No fake ice cream here: it has a 15% butterfat base. The place has been in business since 1956 ... and for a good reason!

Saudi Arabia - Signals of Continuing Change in its Relationship with the US

The US is gradually divesting itself of Saudi Arabia, or at least, of its dependence on oil.  There are several indicators of a sea change in America's attitude towards Saudi Arabia: the game changer of fracking, a growing disgust on the part of the general public with Saudi Arabia's medieval social policies and its export of fundamentalism.  The most recent signal is captured here.  It is one of an escalating series of signals that will inflame American opinion and no manner of Saudi-funded public relations campaigns will be able to diffuse this trend.  Will China , Russia or India step in the fill the political vacuum?

In December 2002, a joint Senate-House intelligence committee published its findings on the horrendous 9/11 terrorist attacks, which included evidence of possible links between the government of Saudi Arabia and some of the 15 Saudis involved in the bombings of the Pentagon and Twin Towers that cost nearly 3,000 American lives. For national security reasons, the 28 pages detailing that information were never published. But they may be shortly and revive yet another intense examination of alleged Saudi support for anti-American terrorism. 
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/saudi-arabia-faces-the-missing-28-pages#sthash.Bta4U6RG.dpuf

The advent of capacity to move oil to tidewater terminals will revitalize Canadian oil producers.  They have made great strides in reducing extraction costs.  The present round of rationalization will eliminate the weak and position the sector to compete more effectively in international markets.  I doubt the extent to which the Saudis will be able to beggar the rest of the world oil producers through their efforts to expand their market share.  It is not sustainable from a financial viewpoint and certainly not from a international political perspective.  We are in for “interesting times”.

Look for the re-emergence of support for a southern pipeline from Canada as the US seeks to strengthen its energy security.

Update on Input Capital

In a post dated April 12, 2016 I recounted a conversation that I had with a seasoned investor.  We had differing views about the value of Input Capital.

Here is the gist of my account:

I discussed the company with an experienced professional investor. He made two remarks:

• noted that the company had lost a major streaming contract that went south
• that why would he invest in such as company as he had great expertise in commodity trading - why engage the services of Input Capital?

I was too polite to take him to task at the table but here is my take:

• It is expected that young companies will encounter glitches along the early road, particularly those with pioneering business models.  
• I informed him gently that Input quickly moved to tighten its due diligence and to reduce the size of streaming contracts - also that it had negotiated many more contracts thereafter.  I was impressed by the ability of the company to learn and adjust its practices.

As to the "why" of investing in a company, the man was blinded by his outlook.  He looked at the company from a strictly personal point of view and ignored the possibility that others might have a different outlook.  To my mind, the company provides a retail investor with diversification to agricultural commodities (in this case, rape seed) and also the potential for gain due to the profitability of the company.  He is entitled to his opinion as I am to mine ... and thank heaven for that. As my father-in-law used to opine:  "That's why they make Fords and Chevs."  

Today, Input Capital issued a news release about its efforts to address the loss of three streaming agreements:

REGINA, May 11, 2016 /CNW/ - Input Capital Corp. ("Input") (TSX Venture: INP) (US: INPCF) is pleased to announce that it has now substantially resolved the largest of the three streaming contracts which were terminated in November 2015.

As a result of management's determined collection efforts related to this streaming contract, the following results have been achieved:

In late March, Input took titled possession of approximately 2,000 acres of farmland;

On May 1, a farm equipment auction was held in which approximately 60% of the equipment held as security was auctioned. The auction was very successful, with over 800 bidders registered to bid and gross sales exceeding the expectations of the auctioneer; and late yesterday, the titles to approximately 3,000 acres of additional farmland were transferred to Input.

Input has taken possession of the balance of the equipment and is planning a second auction for June 2016.

The 5,000 acres of farmland now owned by Input have been rented to local farmers for the 2016 growing season. Input plans to market the land for sale after harvest and has already had several inquiries from potential purchasers.

Management expects that the proceeds of the auctions and the planned land sales will result in a complete recovery of Input's capital associated with this streaming contract.

http://s1.q4cdn.com/784243260/files/doc_news/Input-Capital-Corp-Announces-Account-Resolution.pdf

Enough said.  The market reacted very positively.  

The Future Job Market - What do you tell your kids ... or yourself? Part Two

Academic Achievement

Some Observations about PhDs

If you’re a grad student, it’s best to read the latest report from the National Science Foundation with a large glass of single-malt whiskey in hand. Scratch that: The top-shelf whiskey is probably out of your budget.

This is the lead for a recent article in The Atlantic entitled Jobs Are Scarce for Ph.D.s. 

The article cites a few sobering findings in National Science Foundation (US) survey entitled Doctorate Recipients from US Universities.  It is an annual survey of people who have recently received their doctorates.

• almost 40 percent of graduates had not secured employment upon graduating
• debt loads were high, especially in education and the humanities
• the number of doctorates in the US is increasing each year
• those who decide to toil on in academe in the faint hope of landing a tenure track position, find themselves in low wage jobs 

This article and a few others published in recent years in The Atlantic may be somewhat sensational and not reflective of realities over time.  The long-term prospects of graduates are bright once they get established in the work place - something that might take a few years. Further, while Ph.D.s might not find employment in their specific field of study, their skill sets are usually transferrable to jobs in unrelated fields.  The following article presents a more realistic assessment: How Good Are the Job Prospects for Science Ph.D.s?

I have had to good fortune to work with many scientists who landed jobs related to their academic specialities. Most of them do not work in universities but those who do, generally worked on applied problems.  As a general observation, they are among the happiest, most satisfied people I have ever met in the work force.  And if ever they decide to "graduate" to management, the transition is usually fairly easy as they have a capacity to acquire the formal credentials for advancement e.g. MBAs etc.

Here is a snapshot of the situation in Canada.

Where Are Canada’s PhDs Employed?

It all comes down to following one's heart and interests.  Usually, everything works out in the long run.

One Last Thought 

Some naive doctoral students labour on in the hope that they will obtain faculty positions upon graduation.  If they do not graduate from a prestigious university, their chances of landing on the tenure track are remote.

These facts bring up an uncomfortable question for nonelite universities, which account for the large majority of all Ph.D.-granting institutions. Both Clauset’s and Oprisko’s research suggests most universities are not very successful at generating professors, and most people only get doctorates because they intend to go into academia. Should these lower-prestige institutions even bother granting Ph.D.s at all?
The Academy’s Dirty Secret

Masters Degree 

This is one of the best and most comprehensive articles I have encountered to date.

Should I get a master’s degree?

It addresses the wage premium over undergraduate degrees for a wide variety of occupations.

The financial rewards for getting a graduate degree are compelling. However, if one is interested in employment following graduation, one should ensure that the academic studies have content which is relevant to the job market - especially if a thesis is involved.

Look Before You Leap

Many students accept blindly, the recommendations of their thesis advisors - people whose outlook is often confined to their personal academic interests.  I can't believe the number of students who are seduced by a professor's offer of a jointly published article based on the student's labours.  I ditched my first advisor after two months. I commenced work on a topic recommended by him only to find that he was planning the use the literature review (a component of any thesis) as input to a contract that he had with an outside agency.  It's amazing how the grapevine works, especially if one establishes good relationships with support staff, the lifeblood of most organizations.

It is much better to decide on a thesis topic on one's own and then search out the best person to advise you on your work.  The topic should be relevant to prospective employers and be on the cutting edge.  The best sources of information on potential topics do not include the professorate.  Rather, it is best to survey trade publications and people who actually work in your field of interest. On a few occasions, I have seen industry and organizations actively supporting thesis work.  This happened to me and it meant a great deal, especially as the work was "useful" and not relegated to the archives of a graduate department.

Culture of Fear and Loathing - There is an Alternative

It would seems that the politics of hope has faded from public dialogue in much of Americas and Europe (with the possible exception of "sunny ways" in Canada.)

Very early one morning I was reading a wonderful book by Marilynne Robinson entitled The Giveness of Things - Essays.

The following passage leaped off the page. 

Cultural pessimism is always fashionable, and, since we are human, there are always grounds for it.  It has the negative consequence of depressing the level of aspiration, the sense of the possible.  And from time to time it has the extremely negative consequence of encouraging a kind of somber panic, a collective dream-state in which resource to terrible remedies is inspired by delusions of mortal threat.  If there is anything in the life of any culture or period that gives good grounds for alarm, it is the rise of cultural pessimism, whose major passion is bitter hostility toward many or most of the people within the very culture the pessimists always feel they are intent on rescuing.  When panic on one side is creating alarm on the other, it is easy to forget that there are always as good grounds for optimism as for pessimism - exactly the grounds, in fact - that is, because we are human.  We still have every potential for good we have ever had, and the same presumptive claim to respect, our own respect and one another's.   We are still creatures of singular interest and value, agile of soul as we have always been and as we will continue to be despite our errors and depredations, for as long as we abide on this earth.  To value one another is our greatest safety, and to indulge in fear and contempt is our gravest error.  

This is the thread which lead people the world over to value speeches by the likes of Abraham Lincoln and Martin Luther King in the past and that will likely inspire similar treasures  in the future.  It reflects the better side of human nature and is why the human experiment has been so successful.  

The Future Job Market - What do you tell your kids ... or yourself? Part One

This is the first in a series of posts on the topic.

Introduction

During my second year of university, I learned an important lesson. I went to my academic advisor with a question, What should I do to prepare myself for a future job?

To his credit, my advisor said,  I don't know because I've never been on the open job market.

This started a personal journey which continues today.

It started with a decision to chart my own path - to take on personal responsibility for my future.  There were two key aspects to this:

• to follow my heart with the thought that things will work out in the end
• to work hard and be as good as I could be at what I did

As it happened, I was hired right out of school on a dream job: laying out the optimum route for a renowned hiking trail.  Imagine ... getting paid for a labour of love!  It all happened by accident.  As part of my thesis, I sent out a questionnaire to learn about the hiking behaviour of a hiking club.  One of the randomly-selected recipients worked for a government agency charged with the task of developing  land use plan for region through which the trail ran .... I received a request for an interview ... 

Following that, I  had had a succession of paid jobs that were, with one exception, something to look forward to with each new day.

In the following series of posts, I will write about strategies which I and others have adopted - lessons that were useful to pass on to people we mentored and our children.

The Future Job Market and the Future Nature of Work

Question: What do you want to be when you grow up?  

Answer:  I can't tell you because that job has yet to be invented.

While one can follow one's heart and try to be the best in one's field, there is also the question of balancing one's desires against the realities of the job market ... or the market for goods and services if one decides to strike out on one's own.

In assessing the future labour market, most people end their investigations at tables which predict demand and pay rates for various occupations.  A more nuanced approach is required, especially if one is to survive in tomorrow's working environment.

Here are a few considerations:

1.   Automation

This will change the nature of the work place.  Here is a wonderful graphic from the Visual Capitalist:
Automation Potential and Wages for US Jobs

The graphic is based on Four fundamentals of workplace automation, a report on an ongoing study by McKinsey & Company.  (You will have to register free of charge in order to read the article.  It will also allow you to subscribe to some excellent research reports which are issued periodically.)

Here are some observations:

As the automation of physical and knowledge work advances, many jobs will be redefined rather than eliminated—at least in the short term.

Our results to date suggest, first and foremost, that a focus on occupations is misleading. Very few occupations will be automated in their entirety in the near or medium term. Rather, certain activities are more likely to be automated, requiring entire business processes to be transformed, and jobs performed by people to be redefined, much like the bank teller’s job was redefined with the advent of ATMs.

The report looks at four things:

1. The automation of activities: an analysis of 2000 work activities and their potential for automation.
2. The redefinition of jobs and business processes: automation will redefine how jobs are performed.
3. The impact on high wage occupations: Our work to date suggests that a significant percentage of the activities performed by even those in the highest-paid occupations (for example, financial planners, physicians, and senior executives) can be automated by adapting current technology.
4. The future of creativity and meaning: Creativity and sensing human emotions are difficult to automate.  

It is not appreciated generally how artificial intelligence can alter the nature of future work.  It already has a prominent place in environments where decisions have to be made very quickly in rapidly changing environments.  For example, the military routinely uses algorithms in weapons guidance systems.  No profession will be immune to the AI applications, including lawyers.  LawGeex  is an Israeli company that has developed a platform for reviewing legal contracts. 

LawGeex is the world's first AI contract review platform, helping individuals and businesses get a fair deal before signing an agreement.

LawGeex combines machine learning algorithms with crowd-sourced data, text analytics, and the knowledge of expert lawyers to make in-depth contract reviews accessible to everyone. By providing a plain English explanation of what clauses may be unusual, problematic, or missing, LawGeex ensures that people understand exactly what they’re agreeing to before signing, helping them negotiate a better deal.

Make sure to read the FAQs section on the company's website.  

In the medical field, the use of artificial intelligence has great promise, especially if the developers of various applications can integrate them with existing decision-making processes i.e. doctors are "indoctrinated" with an "I'm in control" approach to their practice of medicine - they will tolerate applications which bolster their decision-making but will oppose anything which threatens to erode their autonomy.  See this:

Artificial Intelligence Is Now Telling Doctors How to Treat You

2.  Globalization

International trade agreements and technological innovation have transformed the workplace.  

• talent can be accessed from almost anywhere at any time
• competition has the potential to lower wages in high cost jurisdictions except for high level management (my opinion)
• increasingly, it will lead to "virtual teams" linked by technology 
• outsourcing will continue to increase, especially for knowledge workers (at the same time, robotics has the potential to repatriate offshore manufacturing to North America and Europe where it makes business sense)
• it will demand skills related to "how" products and services are tailored to meet the demands of specific markets

3.  Corporate Structure 

There has been a transformation in the work place.  In their efforts to right size many corporations have trashed concepts such as worker loyalty, continuity in the work force, and idea innovation from within. There has also been a tremendous increase in the number of contract workers and consultants.  What to do by way of preparing for this environment?  

The following paper provides an interesting perspective on the nature of work and its demands in three types of organizations: large corporations,  social and environmental ethically-based organizations, and small specialist organizations designed to work in networks.  The reality is that the three classifications are not mutually exclusive but it is useful starting point for thinking about one's "fit" with a given working style.  

The future of work - A journey to 2022

4.   Demographics of the Workplace 

Much has been written on this topic so I will not dwell on it in depth.  A few observations:

• labour legislation and economic insecurity will result in a larger cadre of older workers
• in some countries where immigration cannot supplement the workforce, there will be a premium on retaining high value employees

These are but a few of the "qualitative" aspects of the work environment which should be taken into account when charting one's future course.  

In a future post, I will address other topics such as "self assessment" and "networking".

5.  The Best Jobs Have Yet to be Invented

"There is no future in any job. The future lies in
the person who holds the job." - George W. Crane

One of my primary complaints with higher education is that they tend to prepare students for jobs of the past. The way a Midwesterner would phrase it, “they are constantly shooting behind the duck.”

These two sentences are the fanfare for an interesting article:
Future jobs which don't exist today

The prognostications of futurists are interesting but useful only in the sense that they are intended to generate thought about things to come.

It is tempting to prepare one's self for targeted jobs to the exclusion of all else.  The approach is unproductive as the nature of future jobs is subject to change.

A more productive approach is to look at general trends and then assemble skills sets and a mental attitude to adapt to emerging opportunities.

Even better, it is best to follow one's heart and interests and be the best one can be.

I can remember when I took this gamble after having abandoned my graduate studies.  I was dissatisfied with the course work and after a year in the work place, I returned to school with a resolve to follow my heart.  That decision led to a wonderful opportunity and opened the door to a series of other jobs which were a real joy.

My son is on the same track.  His present occupation was not on the job boards ten years ago ... or even five ... it is literally a work in progress. In a very real sense, he is defining himself as he goes. Fortunately  his organization has the capacity to recognize value and to give him rein to explore new possibilities.

Update on Arotech (ARTX)

In the last edition of The Financial Passage Maker I presented a letter by Ephriam Fields, an activist investor.  It was addressed to the Directors of Arotech and dated February 23, 2016.
https://www.accesswire.com/436975/Ephraim-Fields-Criticizes-Recent-Arotech-Financing

Fields made the following points:

• Criticizes selling 5.7% stake at below market prices to "friendly" shareholder
• Criticizes failure to mention Consulting and Voting Agreements in press release
• Questions Board entrenchment nature of the financing
• Believes effective sale price significantly below $1.99 per share
• Questions need to pay up to $375,000 in "consulting fees"
• Pleased with the addition of Jon Kutler to the Board

The letter concluded:

ARTX shareholders deserve a Board that is committed to acting in the best interests of all shareholders, and we firmly believe that electing our nominees is in the best interests of ARTX's shareholders, employees, customers and other stakeholders, because it will bring fresh insights to help address the prolonged underperformance.

On March 28, 2016 it was announced that the proxy contest had been settled.

Under terms of the Agreement, Mr. Lawrence F. Hagenbuch, a nominee on Mr. Fields's proposed slate of directors, has joined Arotech's Board as a Class II director, and has been appointed to Arotech's Compensation, Nominating, and Executive and Finance Committees. In order to make room for Mr. Hagenbuch, Dr. Jay M. Eastman has stepped down from the Board. As part of the Agreement, Arotech and Admiralty Partners, Inc. will shorten their voting agreement by one year. Additionally, Mr. Fields will withdraw his slate of director nominees and will vote for the election of the slate of directors that will be nominated by Arotech at the 2016 Annual Meeting of Stockholders.
http://www.arotech.com/news/news-center/detail/1738/arotech-and-ephraim-fields-of-echo-lake-capital-settle

The market has responded positively.

It will be interesting to follow the progress of this company.  On two occasions, I have invested in companies that were later shaken up by activist investors.  The results were positive in both instances.  I got lucky.

Realizing the Best Returns on Discretionary Expenditures

There comes a point where most successful investors decide to spend some of their stash.  As my mother-in-law was wont to say, "Shrouds don't have pockets."

The question a few people might ask is, Where can I get the best return on my spend?

Several academic studies have addressed this issue.  Most of the literature reaches the following finding:

To live in the developed world is to live in a consumerist society. Although the broader forces that created this society have led to unprecedented material abundance, scholars have maintained that these benefits have come at a significant psychological cost. An important question, then, is how these psychological costs can be minimized. With that in mind, we review research showing that people derive more satisfaction from experiential purchases than material purchases. We then summarize the findings of an extensive program of research on the psychological mechanisms that underlie this difference. This research indicates that experiential purchases provide greater satisfaction and

happiness because: (1) Experiential purchases enhance social relations more readily and effectively than material goods; (2) Experiential purchases form a bigger part of a person’s identity; and (3) Experiential purchases are evaluated more on their own terms and evoke fewer social comparisons than material purchases. We conclude by discussing how social policy might be altered to take advantage of the greater hedonic return offered by

experiential investments, thus advancing societal well-being.

A wonderful life: experiential consumption and the pursuit of happiness by 

Thomas Gilovich, Amit Kumar, and Lily Jampol

The above-noted article is worth reading in its entirety.  

Some Potential Strategies to Achieve Best Returns

1. Reduce discretionary expenditures on "stuff" by simplifying one's life (there is a bountiful literature on this topic which is readily accessible) 
2. Look for alternative ways to enjoy the benefits provided by "stuff" without having to own it e.g. use Uber or short-term rentals instead of purchasing a car, rent cottages, use lending libraries for tools, books etc. 
3. Spend more on experiential purchases, especially if it gives joy to others who are close to you

There is another dimension of "spending" and that is "giving".   Here is an insightful article. on the topic.   One of the propositions advanced is that it is more a question of "how" than "how much".

Giving—and thoughtful, generous giving at that—may be more rewarding than receiving on numerous levels, from the neural, to the personal, to the social. And would a more generous, so to speak, gift be even more rewarding than a less generous one?

The Psychology Behind Gift-Giving and Generosity

Of course, there is yet another dimension to giving - the business of extracting donations on the part of charitable organizations.  The following article provides what might be to some, a rather cynical perspective on a multi-billion $ business sector. 

Getting Into a Benefactor’s Head 

To end this post on a more positive note, I would recommend the following book: 

Good Things Happen to Good People: The Exciting New Research that Proves the Link Between Doing Good and Living a Longer, Healthier, Happier Life by Stephen G.Post.

I came across this book while reading one of Prem Watsa's missives.   

Why I Never Read Reports from Financial Analysts - Updated

I recently attended a very interesting micro cap investing conference in Toronto.  Approximately 35 companies made investor presentations.  I will write about a few in them in a subsequent post.

A very interesting part of the conference was meeting other investors and listening to their questions following each presentation with the purpose of studying their thought processes.

All of them were very well educated people and most had significant experience in the financial industry.  I was struck by a few things:

•  Their questions were predictable.
•  For the most part, they focussed on financial metrics and competition.  

With a few exceptions, they paid little attention to what I consider are the most important aspects of evaluating a potential investment:

• There was not one question about the quality of management.
• I was the only person who asked about staff retention, a key element to the success of small knowledge-intensive enterprises. 
• There were only two questions about the strategic positioning of a company - this despite a long runway that was provided by company executives who had sweated bullets about this key element of a business plan.
• There was hardly any attention paid  to marketing - either to the investment community or to consumers of a company's services/products.  To my mind, this is astonishing, especially when the company presenters had frequently mentioned this.  

I came to the conclusion that most analysts do not conduct their due diligence from the perspective of an owner/operator.  In part, this was due to the fact that most of them had never run a business .... or ... perhaps in their role as financiers or analysts, their perspective changed to the textbook MBA template.   

Further, the foundation of many questions was based on metrics which looked at investment risk.  This is a subtle point.  For example, some companies had made some major strategic adjustments in order to survive.  Not once did the concept of resilience arise.  To my mind, the capacity of a company to shift its focus is a very positive attribute - something to be treasured and which cannot be measured on a balance sheet. 

I was also struck by the narrowness of many "suits" in terms of their perspective.  They simply lacked the ability to think about how companies are perceived by other than the professional investment community.  

A case in point was Input Capital.  I discussed the company with an experienced professional investor.   He made two remarks:

• noted that the company had lost a major streaming contract that went south
• that why would he invest in such as company as he had great expertise in commodity trading - why engage the services of Input Capital?

I was too polite to take him to task at the table but here is my take:

• It is expected that young companies will encounter glitches along the early road, particularly those with pioneering business models.  I informed him gently that Input quickly moved to tighten its due diligence and to reduce the size of streaming contracts - also that it had negotiated many more contracts thereafter.  I was impressed by the ability of the company to learn and adjust its practices.
• As to the "why" of investing in a company, the man was blinded by his outlook.  He looked at the company from a strictly personal point of view and ignored the possibility that others might have a different outlook.  To my mind, the company provides a retail investor with diversification to agricultural commodities (in this case, rape seed) and also the potential for gain due to the profitability of the company.  He is entitled to his opinion as I am to mine ... and thank heaven for that. As my father-in-law used to opine:  "That's why they make Fords and Chevs."  

In my approach to assessing an early-stage company, I admit that I focus primarily on the "softer" side of things:

• quality/integrity of management
• ability to learn and adjust and resiliency
• strategic positioning 
• robustness of the business model
• customer benefit
• intellectual property management
• marketing

On the harder side, I look at:

• balance sheet
• burn rate
• access to funding (internal, external)
• market potential

I also look for catalysts with the potential to change a company's outlook for good or bad.  

In the end, it is people who determine the future of a business.  An idiot with money and good financial metrics is useless.  A genius without money usually finds ways to surmount issues, including things financial.  To my mind, the present state of the financials of a young business represents but a small aspect of a company's potential.

Most analysts appear to give short shrift to the human element and that's why I do not read their reports.  As to their projections of future earnings ... well ... the ancient Greeks probably had a better methodology by appealing to the Gods.  Besides, the cost of bringing a goat to the altar was probably much cheaper than the fees charged by today's temples of finance.  See Oracle of Delphi

OK.  This is has been a rather harsh indictment of template thinking but I advanced the argument this way in order to make a point about analysis by rote - the stuff which litters the field.

I do read several financial blogs.  The best of them advance a more informal style and reflect the individuality of their authors.  In reading them, I am more interested in the authors' thinking process - how they adapt their thinking to the needs of the moment.  The best of them have an ability to zero in on the most important considerations which contribute to the "investment worthiness" of an enterprise.  That is the real art of financial analysis.

One Last Observation

Do the analysts' recommendations make a difference?  The answer is "no".

For decades, researchers have reported that post-revision return drift, or PRD, moves in the direction of analysts’ recommendation revisions; this is to say, PRD is typically positive following upgrades and negative following downgrades. New evidence provided in this article shows the disappearance of significant average PRD that agrees with analysts’ revisions, in the 2003-2010 period. ...

The findings add to the empirical evidence about analysts’ information intermediary role in the securities market. They do not support the view that analysts’ reports consistently provide the typical investor with useful new information about long-run stock price behavior, which complements recent research suggesting that analysts’ reports generally provide little new information for investors in the short-run. They also suggest that it could be difficult for analysts to provide useful new information for ordinary investors in a low transaction cost environment. 

Read the full paper.  Can analysts predict stocks for the long run? 

Investing in India - Fairfax India Holdings Corp (FIH.U)

In recent weeks, it would appear that the market is awakening to the potential of this investment.  It's all about the quality of management and the potential of India.  I established a position in December 2015.  I chose this vehicle over ETFs and mutual funds as I considered that Prem Watsa and his team had a competitive advantage: a record of success, strong connections with India, an embedded knowledge of the country with "boots on the ground" and direct ownership of a variety of enterprises.

The recent annual report is worth reading in its entirety.  It it well written and outlines clearly, the strategy which has been adopted by Watsa el al.
http://s1.q4cdn.com/293822657/files/doc_financials/annual_reports/Final-2015-Annual-Report.pdf

My interest in investing in India is premised on its potential for growth:

• a favourable demographic – population structure, size, 
• a sense that its political culture is recognizing the need to support more favourable policies in the business sector
• a growing presence in some sectors: steel, knowledge-based industries such as IT
• some very strong universities which can recruit the “best of the best” drawn from a large population (I believe that national averages for level of achievement in higher education are not really good measures of a nation's intellectual capacity as it is the 5 percent which account for more than 60 percent of intellectual advances.)
• a growing belief in the country that India has the capacity to compete globally and strong connections with other parts of the world due to extensive migration

India has some major challenges such as barriers to full participation in social and economic life due to the legacy of the caste system, and a poorly developed infrastructure, etc.

Despite this, I believe that India will be a more attractive investment over the long term than China for a variety of reasons:

• It has a more effective way of accommodating differing viewpoints, interests and grievances.  China's one party system and the culture in its governing class of “having its way” with a high sense of impunity will ultimately be problematic.  (In meeting with Chinese officials on a few occasions, I noted this when the discussion moved to the role of government in the process of economic development.  They were mystified why things took so long in Canada.)  When controls are imposed from the centre or where decisions are controlled in an hierarchical system, political and economic systems can rupture suddenly.  
• Its demographic structure is more attractive. 
• Its geographical position vis a vis trade routes appears to be more favourable.  

I addressed the thesis at greater length in an earlier posting. In the course of my on-going reading, I encountered some very interesting articles.  The following article presents some interesting comparators:

Why India is Still Playing Catch-up to China

After reading the article, I explored some of its references and found this wonderful site: Trading Economics:

Trading Economics provides more than 300.000 indicators for 196 countries, including economic data, exchange rates, bonds, stocks and commodities. During the last five years, we had more than 100 million page views from more than 200 countries. Interestingly, we rank second to none in many economic terms in Google or other search engines which make us a valuable asset for firms interested in saving in advertisement and generating more attention-grabbing leads. In addition, unlike many startup companies, our net profit has been positive since the first month we were open for business. Our fixed costs are low and our revenues are very solid and trending higher. Nearly 80 percent of our revenues come from recurring subscriptions and 20 percent comes from advertisement on the site.

This is a great site.  It is a wonderful way to “take the pulse” of a country.  OK, I admit that I'm a bit of a wonk for this stuff provided that I dive into the statistical pool with a perspective to guide my wanderings.  I use the stats to test my theories/impressions; otherwise, it would be time wasted.

And speaking about statistics, one of the first things the federal Liberal government did following the recent election in Canada was to restore the long form census.  This reversal of a ignorant, ideologically-driven decision by the Harper government is welcome.  Some readers may know that the voluntary census invoked by the Harper government was inferior in its coverage and reliability and cost $ 30 million more than the previous long form census ... shameful.  The grisly tale is recounted here:
Canada has lost its census anchor

Statistics Canada is one of the most highly regarded agencies of its type in the world.  It has a culture of the "neutral view" - a tradition of providing reliable information without imparting a political interpretation.  In my view, one of our national treasures. 

Making Sense of Health and Wellness Literature - A Framework for Developing a Personal Action Plan

Purpose of this Commentary

This is a report on my thinking to date about what and how to research about health and wellness with the aim of developing a regime to:

• improve my general level of fitness 
• contribute to improved performance, enjoyment and safety while engaged in specific activities such as long distance walking

It will set out a framework which sets priorities for research and organizes the findings in a way that can be translated into a series of specific actions on my part to achieve some specific objectives.

I am not motivated by thoughts of prolonging my life as I've grown to appreciate the significance of accidents and chance which often have a greater influence on one's longevity than "good intentions" translated into action.  Rather, I am interested in measures that will improve the quality of life by enabling me to engage effectively in a variety of activities ranging from basic things such as sitting, walking and sleeping to more directed pursuits such as skiing, long distance hiking etc.  

Introduction

When I started to read about health and wellness a few years ago, I was confronted with a bewildering array of information:

• The array of subject material is vast - everything from dietary regimes and nutrition to the influence of swearing during high performance activities.
• In recent decades especially, the literature on health has exploded.  It is simply not possible to even consider sampling but a smattering of the sources e.g. when I Goggled "cardio vascular health" I got 3.5 million hits; 714,000 hits for "plantar fasciitis"; and 2.4 million for "barefoot running".  
• The quality and reliability of the information is variable - who and what to trust?

 A Commentary on the Literature (excluding the "quackery" and "beyond the fringe" stuff)

There is a bewildering variety of science-based studies.  Sadly, most of them are focused on "learning more about less" - a reductionist approach which misses the forest for the trees.  In part, this is driven by the quest for "originality" and scholarly reputation. It is also an outgrowth of the sheer number of graduate students and post-doctoral fellows looking for something to occupy their time. In some instances, it is a product of research which is intended to give high performance athletes that "extra edge" in high level competition, an activity where fractions of a second make a major difference.  (I'm not too interested in that stuff as I'm not in that league and further, the pursuit of those exercise routines can do real damage to people who are not trained to extreme levels.)

Most of the academic studies are  short-term in nature and limited in scope.  Sample sizes are often small with the result that it is difficult to achieve a meaning measure of statistical significance.  In my experience, this is the product of funding limitations and/or time constraints.

Also, authors are driven to publish results before long-term findings are in hand - a product of the "publish or perish" syndrome.  

Study methodologies are not standardized, meaning that it is difficult to compare or replicate results.  For example, many studies of exercise/diet regimes purporting to improve health and fitness are conducted with untrained subjects whose responses differ from trained or fitter individuals and visa versa.  

Those generalized, long-term population studies which exist, while interesting, only provide "averages".  It is difficult to extrapolate findings to the circumstances of an individual.  For example, an individual's response to an exercise regime varies from the general population in relation to a myriad of physical factors which simply cannot be embraced in generalized population studies.  This is complicated further by factors such as a subject's attitude and life style.  

It is difficult to separate out the "important" from the least important findings in terms of relevance to one's personal situation and needs.  For example, there is a growing body of literature which focuses on seemingly minute matters which authors claim could make the difference between winning and losing in the game of high performance athletics.  For "average Joe's and Jill's", I suspect that most of this stuff is not relevant. 

My Conclusion

I realized that I needed conceptual framework to direct my future reading in order to:

• maximize the useful return on reading time
• organize the findings into a mental framework in order to provide context and a basis for taking action on the findings
• priorize my reading to topics which are most applicable to my personal circumstances (life style, needs and expectations)

Preliminary Steps to Developing a Framework

Here is the approach.  It is not sequential.  Rather it is adaptive. It will change as new information becomes available.  The following is premised on the guideline that I will read only science-based, peer reviewed literature.  

1.   Comprehensive Overview

Some books provide an overview of the "playing field". They are useful in that they provide a perspective of how authors approach the topic and organize their thoughts.  This is invaluable as "how" one thinks influences "what" one reads.  I find that I am more comfortable with some "mental frameworks" than others.  For example, I much prefer science-based insights as opposed to more experiential viewpoints.  While I consider myself a spiritual person,  at this stage, I find myself more interested in the "what's, why's and when's".  I figure that I'll evolve into the more philosophical aspects through the process of "doing".

2.  Assessment of Personal Needs

In brief, it involves an identification of wants, needs and desired outcomes in response to an assessment of lifestyle, expectations for the future, and other considerations.  In essence, the "list" will assist in identifying specific areas for future research and setting priorities. 

3.  Focused Research

This where several themes identified during the aforementioned processes will be identified and explored.  I will assign a relative priority on the topics based on my personal needs and some of the comprehensive reading.

The comprehensive reading is useful for "building the base".  For me, this entails an examination of general items which are vital to the function of the system as a whole:

• cardio-vascular health and the associated elements of endurance, "heart health", 
• breathing: 
• balance
• posture 
• efficiency in movement (Alexander method)
• flexibility (not for its own sake, but for specific activities which are identified later)
• vision (I am interested in exploring an eye exercise technique used by my brother to "graduate" from the use of reading glasses)
• sleep 

There are specific activities that I want to pursue for two reasons: preparing myself to meet the physical demands specific to each activity; and, minimizing the chance of injury:

• walking ("foot fitness", efficiency in movement)
• swimming (cardio, endurance, efficiency in movement)
• snowboarding/skiing (strength, endurance, balance)
• sitting at the computer keyboard, piano (posture, hand/arm strength and flexibility)
• lifting and other movements associated with general tasks and activities such as canoeing, house and yard work: strength, balance, efficiency and safety of movement, injury prevention
• bicycling (endurance, efficiency of movement)

Many of the aforementioned activities have overlapping requirements and are also related to the general items noted previously. 

4.  Thinking about Implementation

This is the most important part.  I hope to develop a regime where I can "build the base" in a time efficient way and have time to focus on some of the specific needs associated with activities such as skiing.  In part, this can be done on a seasonal basis e.g. ski preparation starting in the late fall, cycling in the late winter, although a stationary bike could also be used throughout the year as a warm-up preparation for daily exercise.

This is premised on the expectation that a commitment will be made to follow the plan.  I've learned that after the initial three hard weeks, that an hour or so a day soon becomes a habit - also that much of the implementation does not have to take place in a gym or pool e.g. balance can be incorporated in daily activities such as putting on one's socks while standing on one leg with eyes closed. A major part of my knee strengthening takes place while watching TV, ditto for hand stretching exercises for the piano.

In a series of posts, I will report on my progress.  It will be akin to "notes to self".  

Great Post on the Business Model for Credit Cards

Once in a while, I encounter a great post.  This is one of them:

Welcome to Adult Life”: American Express, Synchrony Financial & the Changing Credit Card Landscape

Two years ago, I investigated the moat around American Express’s (AXP) business.  I assessed the moat as wide and identified a positive feedback loop at the heart of it.  The loop ran like this:

1. Spending on Amex cards is higher on a per-card basis than its competitors
2. Merchants want to accept the Amex card to attract these high-paying customers
3. This affluent customer pool enables Amex to charge higher discount rates
4. Because of the revenues generated from higher-spending Cardmembers, Amex has the cash to invest in more attractive rewards and other benefits to Cardmembers
5. The rewards program in turn creates incentives for Cardmembers to spend more on their Cards.

The post goes on to look at the competitive landscape for credit cards with a special focus on Synchrony Financial (SYF: NYSE).

It is absolutely fascinating - a clear-headed, logical analysis of the playing field ...  beautifully written by a person who is in command of his craft.  

The post appears on Punch Card Investing, one of the best of its breed.  

Punchcard's focus?  Dedicated to the Exploration of Moats and High Quality Businesses

You can subscribe to the blog through e-mail, Twitter, RSS etc.  

It is so good that I read every post.

ps  I looked at SYF about a year ago and decided to pass.  While its business model was engaging, there are other companies with more attractive possibilities.  

Looking for an interesting business model? Investigate Input Capital, one of the first agricultural streaming companies in the world.  Here is a quick primer on the model:
http://s1.q4cdn.com/584800959/files/doc_downloads/CGW141111-edit.pdf

I wrote about it in an earlier posting in The Financial Passage Maker.  Company management has demonstrated an ability to respond quickly and effectively to setbacks.  The capacity to learn and respond is an attractive attribute which is lacking in many enterprises.  In the end, companies are all about people - something that many financial analysts often forget.  

Use Your iPad for Design Projects - A Design Innovation

For many years, I have used CAD (computer assisted design) programs to plan out projects for the home and boat.  The learning curve was sometimes steep, especially in the early days of these programs.

In recent years I have used SketchUp to plan a variety of projects, including a major renovation of the galley on our trawler.  The ability to visualize the plan in 3D was especially useful. It is a powerful program.

http://www.sketchup.com/

I subscribe to WIRED, a publication which focuses on the impact of emerging technologies on society.  You can subscribe to e-mail versions of its offerings (free) or pay a reasonable fee for a full subscription.  It is one of my go-to sites for emerging ideas.

http://www.wired.com/

From WIRED I recently learned about a new entrant in the CAD field, Gravity Sketch.  It marks a new development:

Gravity has embraced 3-D printing as the logical output of the app, but frankly, that seems to be the least compelling use-case. Looking forward, Gravity is essentially preparing people to use a new gestural language for creation that it will carry through to more advanced VR and AR products. And the idea that anyone, not just professionals, can sketch a 3-D object with scant technical knowledge will grow increasingly important. As virtual and augmented reality become more commonplace, it’s easy to see how everyday communication could shift from two to three dimensions, too. Five years from now, it won’t just be developers who need literacy in this space—it’ll be everyone.
http://www.wired.com/2016/03/gravitysketch-3-d-software/

To learn more, look here:

https://www.gravitysketch.com/

The transformation of designs into hold-in-hand creations is done by Shapeways.  Look here to see the possibilities.  As you will see, Shapeways offers a variety of programs to assist the with the design of a wide variety of projects.

http://www.shapeways.com/

As always, I look for alternative approaches to issues - in this instance, 3D printing.  The Toronto Public Library system is one of the best in the world.  Consistently, it has demonstrated an ability to adapt.  Years ago, it stocked books and other materials in many languages to meet the demand of the city's multicultural mosaic. (Did you know that 50 percent of Torontonians were born outside of Canada?) The system has been in the forefront of functioning as a community hub and in the delivery of new services which have expanded its horizons well beyond the world of books.  The focus is on the democratization of access to knowledge.

One of the services offered by the system is 3D design and printing.

http://www.torontopubliclibrary.ca/using-the-library/computer-services/innovation-spaces/3D-design-print.jsp

Is in no wonder that the per capita use of Toronto's library system is the second highest in the world?  It is one of the reasons why this city consistently rates among the best places to live.