In an earlier edition, I wrote about The_Influence_of_Sea_Power_upon_History 1660 - 1783 by Alfred_Thayer_Mahan. Published in 1890, it has had a profound influence on strategic thinking throughout the world. After reading this book, I understood why China and India are going to great lengths to strengthen their navies and are now projecting their power beyond the littoral. The strategic imperatives for national security are basically the same then as now.
I highly recommend this book. It is beautifully written, exemplifies scholarship at its best, and most important, is extremely relevant. Simply put, it is one of the best treatises on military strategy ever written.
My reason for returning to the topic of sea power is related to the strategic importance of sea lanes for the movement of oil and global trade in general. It is tempting to be side-tracked by advances in technology which some people contend are game changers e.g. http://thediplomat.com/2015/12/new-wrinkles-in-maritime-warfare/.
Technological advances, while titillating, confer temporary advantages for short periods of time. However, history has constantly shown that higher order currents dictate the outcome of military engagement, namely: overarching political/military strategy and enabling factors such as cultural institutions and outlook, economic infrastructure in its broadest sense, and so on.
Forecasts about future energy prices have changed markedly from previous years where higher prices were the menu du jour. Two main drivers were usually cited: increased demand for fossil fuels; and, higher extraction costs now that the days of "easy oil" are winding down.
The outlook is now different. Lower prices are now the mantra: supply now outstrips demand, especially as Saudi Arabia seems intent on gaining market share at the expense of its competitors; and, demand appears to be declining as a result of a slowdown in the global economy and the prospect that agreements to limit greenhouse gases will finally take effect.
Is it different this time? Having been through price declines previously, I have observed that the "end of oil" scenarios generally prevail when oil prices are depressed. As always, it pays to take the long view. Any significant change in consumption and production above/below the "norm" will take far more time than many writers are prepared to anticipate. As always, one should heed the "agenda" hidden behind various scenarios of future supply and demand.
We've been there before. Check out this link and cast your mind back to prognostications at various times about future oil prices. This link is well worth exploring in depth.
http://www.eia.gov/finance/markets/balance.cfm
Just about every forecast gives short shrift to geopolitical risk. And for a good reason: it is very difficult to predict the time, form and impact of potential disruptions to the flow of oil. The following link provides an overview of sea routes, choke points and the disposition of military resources to protect those routes.
http://ckrhmt2008.weebly.com/transportation-routes.html
In my reading, I was especially impressed by the depth of a paper entitled, The Influence of Sea Power in the 21st Century. It provides an excellent synopsis of the assumptions behind American military strategy and a "view" on maritime strategy. No wonder that so many nations are now making significant efforts to build their navies. The paper provides an excellent basis for exploring aspects of naval strategy at greater length.
http://web.mit.edu/ssp/publications/working_papers/wp_00-4.pdf
You can visit websites which give the views of military strategists from all of the major military powers. They are very forthcoming.
In assessing potential investments, particularly in the area of commodities which are dependent on maritime transportation, I make it a point to study geopolitics and geography. This has been especially relevant during my research in agriculture. The following section provides a few of the better sources of information - this in addition to the usual bevy of national departments of agriculture and the like.
Some Go-To Sources for a Better Understanding of International Relations
Many organizations offer portals into the thinking of actors on the international stage. Here are some of the ones I visit with during my reading hours.
International Security
It is published by the MIT Press for the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University.
International Security publishes lucid, well-documented essays on the full range of contemporary security issues. Its articles address traditional topics such as war and peace, as well as more recent dimensions of security, including the growing importance of environmental, demographic, and humanitarian issues, and the rise of global terrorist networks.
International Security has defined the debate on US national security policy and set the agenda for scholarship on international security affairs for more than thirty years. For many years, International Security has been consistently at or near the top of the Thomson Reuters Impact Factor rankings of all international relations journals. It also ranks #1 among journals of military studies according to Google Scholar. Readers of IS discover new developments in:
- The causes and prevention of war
- Ethnic conflict and peacekeeping
- Terrorism and homeland security
- European, Asian, and regional security
- U.S. foreign policy
- Arms control and weapons proliferation
- International relations theory
- Diplomatic and military history
I recommend that you also visit the Belfer Center (see link above).
Chatham House is excellent and has been cited previously in an earlier edition.
Chatham House carries out independent and rigorous analysis of critical global, regional and country-specific challenges and opportunities. It consistently ranks highly in the University of Pennsylvania’s annual Global Go To Think Tank Index, where it has been assessed by its peers as the No. 1 think tank outside the US for seven consecutive years and No. 2 worldwide for the past four years.
You can access some of the best think tanks by visiting:
http://gotothinktank.com/
This paper provides an excellent discussion of think tanks and rates them by country and subject.
Think Tanks & Civil Societies Program
It is a great resource: my go-to source when I start researching investment themes.
Chatham House is excellent and has been cited previously in an earlier edition.
Chatham House carries out independent and rigorous analysis of critical global, regional and country-specific challenges and opportunities. It consistently ranks highly in the University of Pennsylvania’s annual Global Go To Think Tank Index, where it has been assessed by its peers as the No. 1 think tank outside the US for seven consecutive years and No. 2 worldwide for the past four years.
You can access some of the best think tanks by visiting:
http://gotothinktank.com/
This paper provides an excellent discussion of think tanks and rates them by country and subject.
Think Tanks & Civil Societies Program
It is a great resource: my go-to source when I start researching investment themes.
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