In
one of his rare optimistic moods, he makes several points:
- the growing proportion of solar to new electricity generation capacity each year in the U.S. (and probably elsewhere)
- the role of the U.S. military (and other militaries) in supporting cutting edge research to make solar generation/storage more practical
- the eye-popping reductions in cost for solar panels
- very significant increases in the efficiency of solar panels in converting solar energy into electricity
On
the plus side, I would add the following positive points re the
future of solar power:
- in developed countries, there is a robust infrastructure in place to deliver electricity to consumers, although it has to be tweaked to account for periodicity in solar supply
- the “global power system” is increasingly “going electrical”, meaning that solar power is “going with the trend”
- popular opinion is inclined to support more solar power (and it doesn't have equivalent negatives associated with wind power)
- solar power installations do not have the same geographic limitations as wind and other “clean” energy sources such as water, tidal, and large-scale geothermal technologies (biomass is a notable exception)
This
said, there are some practicalities which have to be addressed and it
is here that I am focussing my search for new investments. Here are
a few:
- energy storage: cheaper, more efficient batteries are needed
- “energy integration”: the “blending” of periodic solar power with existing power sources (includes fields such as power management, physical infrastructure for distribution, “soft” topics such as customer education and billing regimes etc.)
- issues of scale: “best fits” of the technology or “systems” which are most cost effective and socially acceptable at various scales, ranging from individual sites (buildings) to large generating stations serving larger consumers and/or a network of more widely distributed customers
- construction and maintenance
- financing
While
I am still refining my “search criteria”, here are a few
waypoints that I have laid down to plan my voyage:
- I'll tend to stay away from the “next best thing” in new technologies. Why? Because new high tech ventures are highly risky and, for a variety of reasons, generally take a loooong time to yield fruit
- I'll search for “systems” which are in the early stages of securing a customer base i.e. companies such as Waterfurnace which are well-positioned for a catalyst to propel them to the next level.
- I'll focus on distribution, especially on companies which have a competitive advantage.
- Maintenance systems will also be another area of investigation, especially as income streams are reliable. This includes services and hardware for monitoring.
At
present, I'm building a systems model to assist me with my thinking.
Once I have worked out some promising themes, I'll pursue them in a
leisurely way, much as I did for for the theme of “rail tanker
safety” two years ago.
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