Best Thing You Can Do to Maintain Your Health

What is the most important thing you can do for your health?  The answer is simple:  20 to 30 minutes of physical activity per day.

Click on the following link to see a remarkable video: remarkable because the answer is simple, well-supported by data and produced by a credible doctor.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aUaInS6HIGo

Many people contend that they do not have the time for exercise.  l contend that they do not make the time.  One need only maintain an diary for one or two weeks, noting activities during hourly intervals, to see how much discretionary time is involved in things such as watching TV.

I did this and found that it was easy to free up 30 minutes a day for exercise at home - no expensive gym memberships - no expensive equipment.  I also found that I could "double task" in that I could do some exercises while watching TV or while working at the computer.

It's a fairly simple matter to adopt a regular exercise regime: make it a habit.  If you commit yourself to 20 or 30 minutes a day for exercise for a period of three weeks, chances are that it will become a habit.

The results will pay off in better health outcomes and a greater enjoyment of life. Where in life is there a better pay-off in terms of risk/reward?

In recent years, I've made it a practice to take a long-distance walk or bicycle trip.  This June it will be a bicycle trip from Quebec City to Kingston, Ontario via Sherbrooke, Lake Champlain and Montreal.  I will post the URL for the trip blog. We'll use the same site as we did for a cycling trip last year from Washington DC to Kingston, Ontario.

The results of regular exercise over the past winter were present in spades when I hopped aboard the bike for some spring training runs of 20 to 30 miles this year. What a difference from last spring: no numbness in the hands, reserves of power for hills that once killed me, and more endurance when boring into headwinds.

Creative Thinking - Academics with a Great Sense of Play

The best thinkers have a great sense of play.  Many second rate "players" take a perverse delight in “celebrating” the creative writing habits of their students. Most often, it takes the form of excerpts from student papers.

The following essay is hilarious and I recommend it highly, especially if you have had a bad day and need a laugh. http://www.wilsonquarterly.com/essays/history-past-life-reeked-joy

Here are a few excerpts ... note that there is more than a grain of truth in what is written:

Theologically, Luthar was into reorientation mutation.
Orthodox priests became government antennae.
The French revolution was accomplished before it happened.

Many (most?) second rate academics take themselves too seriously. For example, have many twirps have you had to suffer during your university studies?

When I was in my first year of university, some academic wonks decided that it would be a good idea to expose all “unwashed” first year students to a course entitled “Modes of Reasoning” ... the thinking was that this course would be useful in arranging the neurons of students such that, one day, they might approximate the functionality of the professoriate.

The mandatory course was ghastly. It was delivered in a huge lecture hall and since it was decided that all first-year students would take the course at the same time, the lecture was piped into two other lecture halls. The lecturer was ill-prepared. His “superior” attitude didn't cut it with the audience (many of them took to inhaling some weed to endure later lectures). The content, as presented, was totally irrelevant and totally boring.

Things progressed to the point were there was an open revolt and people walked out after a confrontation. The course was never again on the syllabus and I imagine that everyone passed even if they did not attend more than three of the lectures .... I should know ... I was one of them.  During the "revolt" the lecturer opined that he was "delivering pearls before swine" ... he was laughed off the lectern ... a triumphal result of peer review. 

This said, university life can be wonderful. Many academics (usually the best of 'em) have a wonderful sense of play. Nowhere is this better illustrated than in Improbable Research http://www.improbable.com/

Among other things, Improbable Research hosts the Ig Nobel Prizes. Here are a few of my favourites:

Ig Nobel Prize Winner Dr. Elena Bodnar demonstrates her invention - a brassiere that can quickly convert into a pair of protective face masks. patent

Photo credit: Alexey Eliseev, 2009Ig Nobel Ceremony

I never used to worry about getting a colonoscopy ... but now I'm terrified ... no onion soup or bean burritos for me the day before:

2012 MEDICINE PRIZE: Emmanuel Ben-Soussan and Michel Antonietti [FRANCE] for advising doctors who perform colonoscopies how to minimize the chance that their patients will explode.
http://io9.com/5945354/how-to-keep-colonoscopy-patients-from-exploding-and-other-winners-from-the-2012-ig-nobel-awards


The "sense of play" is essential for the advancement of ideas.  While the results can sometimes be deadly serious, the process allows people to explore ideas thoroughly without the usual strictures of peer review (which often is corrupted by the self interests of reviewers) and "self editing".   It is to be celebrated.  There is a paucity of this in the financial press and in financial writings - an indication, perhaps, of the state of economics and related "disciplines".

Solar Power - the hunt for new investments is underway

The following article by Ambrose Pritchard stimulated me to look once again at solar energy.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/10755598/Global-solar-dominance-in-sight-as-science-trumps-fossil-fuels.html

In one of his rare optimistic moods, he makes several points:

• the growing proportion of solar to new electricity generation capacity each year in the U.S. (and probably elsewhere)
• the role of the U.S. military (and other militaries) in supporting cutting edge research to make solar generation/storage more practical
• the eye-popping reductions in cost for solar panels
• very significant increases in the efficiency of solar panels in converting solar energy into electricity

On the plus side, I would add the following positive points re the future of solar power:

• in developed countries, there is a robust infrastructure in place to deliver electricity to consumers, although it has to be tweaked to account for periodicity in solar supply
• the “global power system” is increasingly “going electrical”, meaning that solar power is “going with the trend”
• popular opinion is inclined to support more solar power (and it doesn't have equivalent negatives associated with wind power)
• solar power installations do not have the same geographic limitations as wind and other “clean” energy sources such as water, tidal, and large-scale geothermal technologies (biomass is a notable exception)

This said, there are some practicalities which have to be addressed and it is here that I am focussing my search for new investments. Here are a few:

• energy storage: cheaper, more efficient batteries are needed
• “energy integration”: the “blending” of periodic solar power with existing power sources (includes fields such as power management, physical infrastructure for distribution, “soft” topics such as customer education and billing regimes etc.)
• issues of scale: “best fits” of the technology or “systems” which are most cost effective and socially acceptable at various scales, ranging from individual sites (buildings) to large generating stations serving larger consumers and/or a network of more widely distributed customers
• construction and maintenance
• financing

While I am still refining my “search criteria”, here are a few waypoints that I have laid down to plan my voyage:

• I'll tend to stay away from the “next best thing” in new technologies. Why? Because new high tech ventures are highly risky and, for a variety of reasons, generally take a loooong time to yield fruit
• I'll search for “systems” which are in the early stages of securing a customer base i.e. companies such as Waterfurnace which are well-positioned for a catalyst to propel them to the next level.
• I'll focus on distribution, especially on companies which have a competitive advantage.
• Maintenance systems will also be another area of investigation, especially as income streams are reliable. This includes services and hardware for monitoring.

At present, I'm building a systems model to assist me with my thinking. Once I have worked out some promising themes, I'll pursue them in a leisurely way, much as I did for for the theme of “rail tanker safety” two years ago.

Financial Log Book - Interim Report on Investments - April 4, 2014

Some very satisfying gains have been made since the beginning of the year. Most of the gains have been contributed by the "magic 20 percent".  Two investment themes are largely responsible:  rail safety and resource scarcity - a west coast quarry with marine access.

Comments on the various holdings can be found in earlier postings on this blog.

In light of rather frothy valuations in the market, I think that a correction may depress most holdings in the event that it does take place ... as it inevitably will. I am planning to take some profits and keep the money in cash or place in companies with the following attributes:

• businesses with a wide moat and income streams which will not implode in falling economic conditions e.g. North West Company
• companies which are well managed and positioned to profit from well-established long-term trends e.g. Deere, and some of the energy enterprises 
• companies with a demonstrated resilience during hard economic times e.g. Fairfax Financial Holdings.  Check out the company web site to learn more about Prem Watsa's strategies. 

Entity	Initial Price/ Purchase Date	Price 2014-04-03	Gain/Loss since Jan 1/14 %	Gain/Loss Since Purchase %
Central Fund of Canada (CEF.A)	9.77 2007-09-04	15.17	8.1	55.3
Silver Wheaton (SLW)	12.37 2007-09-04	25.25	17.7	104.2
Polaris Minerals (PLS)**	10.70 2007-06-01	3.08	71.1	-71.2
Cenovus (CVE)	32.39 2010-07-27	31.76	5.3	-2
Canadian National Railway (CN) *	48.88 2009-04-14	61.98	2.8	156.9
North West Company (NWF)	16.23 2009-05-07	24.39	-4.2	50.3
Waterfurnace Renewable Energy (WFI)	28.62 2010-04-12	20.61	-13	-28
ABB (ABB-N)	20.18 2012-12-13	SOLD 03/12 25.35
Oceaneering International (OII-N)	52.95 2012-12-13	73.47	-6.6	38.8
Deere & Company (DE)	88.07 2013-01-03	92.06	1.4	4.5
Rocky Mountain Dealerships (RME)	11.89 2013-01-03	11.35	-10.5	-4.6
HollyFrontier (HFC)	47.95 2013-01-28	48.44	-0.9	1
Titan Logix (TLA)	1.25 2013-09-11	1.42	11.8	13.6
Kelso Technologies Inc. (KLS)	2.20 2013-09-11	5.41	72.4	145.9
U.S. Silica Holdings (SLCA)	25.15 2013-09-11	39.27	15.9	56.1
Oak Tree Capital Group (OAK)	56.45 2013-10-28	57.7	-0.2	2.2
High North Resources (HN)	0.62 2014-03-06	0.54	-12.9	-12.9
Fairfax Financial Holdings (FFH)	477.98 2014-3-25	480	0.4	0.4

*CN split 2 for 1 on 2013.12.02

** does not reflect impact of follow-on investment @ $.67 per share