So,
should you bother to read analyst reports or think about the details
of these reports as written about in the financial media? Yes and no.
I think you should completely throw away any target price and
recommendation information, and toss out any discussion that doesn’t
pertain to the long-term performance of the business. Leave that to
the pros who chase this kind of unimportant information. Spend your
time looking at the more interesting discussions that actually matter
to the long-term performance of a business.
...
price targets are often met with skepticism. Some investors see them
mainly as marketing tools for brokerages that want to drum up
interest in a stock. Indeed, research has shown that price targets
tell you little about where a company’s share price is actually
heading.
Sometimes,
when investigating an investment theme, I will review analysts'
reports in an effort to learn more about the theme and potential
targets for the Gun Port. I also visit discussion sites such as
Stockhouse in order to take the pulse of the investment community.
(You can find discussion sites by using the term, “stock discussion
boards” in Google.) While there is a lot of drivel, you can
sometimes unearth some real gems: thoughtful commentary from people
well versed in the industry, useful tidbits from people who may
surface details about company management and practices which investor
relations staff would prefer to be well hidden, and so on.
The bottom line: Learn all you can about a company before committing yourself to a financial relationship. Here are some sources of company-specific information I consider as part of the dating process:
- company documents: annual reports, news releases, investor presentations
- summaries of company information as found on sites such as Yahoo Finance
- discussion boards
- trade publications
- Google searches of company managers and directors
- details re personnel e.g. Glassdoor, job advertisements
- analysts' reports (note that I generally read them, if at all, in the latter part of my investigations as a check to see if I missed anything)
In my opinion, analysts are at heart, sophisticated but generally overworked shills. They follow boilerplate templates and are limited in what they can say by institutional constraints and the conventions of their trade. This said, there is some value in what they might have to say, as noted so well by Mr. Umiastowski.
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