Tuesday, 13 June 2017

The "Amateur" Investor

People often exhibit irrational behaviour, particularly when it comes to things financial.  In particular, I am perplexed that many people spend a tremendous amount of time and money on education in order to acquire the skills/certification to earn a living ... and yet they invest no time or effort in learning how to manage the income gained by exercising those skills.  Instead, they abrogate responsibility for their financial well-being to others.  To my mind, this is astonishing.

Reasons offered for this bizarre behaviour include:
  • lack of time
  • advertising from the financial sector to the effect that finances are best managed by "experts" 
  • the belief that it is too hard
  • lack of confidence
My Background

I have no formal training in money management.  My academic background touched on the fine arts, molecular biology and geography where I graduated with a Master's Degree.

I was driven to learn about investing by circumstance: the need to establish a nest egg to retrain and start my own business in the event of a job loss due to downsizing.  As a manager, I laid off 40 percent of my staff ... and there was the distinct possibility that I would be next.  If this happened, I resolved never to work for someone else again, much preferring to be the master of my own destiny.

I started by studying two hours each day, usually during the early morning hours when I could not be distracted.  After 8 years and many mistakes, I started to earn more by investing than from my wages.  It was liberating.

Ten Lost Years

My investing career followed a fairly common path:

  • I read the financial pages and "flavour-of-the-month" financial books.
  • I subscribed to some money management magazines.
  • I subscribed to a variety of investment blogs. 
  • As a first step in placing my money, I retained an investment advisor who dealt almost exclusively with mutual funds.  I fired him because performance was sub par.  I also learned that management fees had a very corrosive impact on my portfolio and that most mutual funds fail even to surpass market indices on a sustained basis. 
  • I retained a stock broker.  I fired him and her ... ever hear about "churning" and under performance?
  • I decided to go it on my own and started by investing in junior companies with the thought that I could make quick profits.  I lost money. 
  • I had little tolerance for dips in share prices.  I lost money. 
  • I had no real appreciation of why stocks either rose or fell in value.  I got discouraged.  
Those were 10 "lost years" ... or maybe not.  It prepared me for a major event - the distinct possibility that I would lose my job. 

The Awakening

Until threatened with a potential job loss, I essentially "dabbled".  I was now motivated by survival.  

At first I hated the activity, but was driven by a duty to myself and family. I persisted and after six months, became fascinated:
  • I loved the constant learning and synthesis and assessment of information from a wide variety of sources. 
  • I soon learned that, like golf, a large part of investing involves a knowledge of self and how to manage one's emotions. 
  • I also learned that the basis of successful investing, more than anything else, depends on developing a philosophy and a "world view".  This is a key differentiator which is often overlooked.  This is a "work in progress".  
  • I learned to accept losses without regret and to learn from the experience. 
Why Amateurs Have an Advantage Over "Professional" Money Managers

The Lot of Professional Money Managers

Supplicants enter the "priesthood" of money management by one or more of the following ways:
  • academic credentials
  • industry credentials
  • association with a business in the money management game (and believe me, many practitioners regard it as a game)
  • familial connections
For understandable reasons, both government and industry have to rely on credentialism BUT that is no guarantee of superior performance or that money managers will work in the interest of their customers.  

In fact, an argument could be advanced that "average" is rewarded more than poor performance or superior performance. 
  • Running with the herd and not standing out for any reason, means that money managers can play safe.  Most work primarily with the objective of maintaining their jobs.  Travelling outside the herd leaves one open to question, especially if one's investments go south.  
  • Underperformance is common, but is often justified by the view/hope that a particular sector will outperform the rest of the market once conditions improve .... precious metals funds, come on down.  
  • Out performance is risky.  It is very difficult to maintain outstanding performance metrics.  Fickle investors have no hesitation in abandoning "hot" funds and moving on to the next great thing.   
Investment professionals are often restricted by a number of other factors:
  • Investment choices are restricted by the opinions of investment committees or company apparatchiks involved with "risk management".
  • Brokerage firms and banks are often biased towards the stocks of companies they finance and money managers are often "encouraged" to push these stocks on unsuspecting clients. 
  • Money management is a very "busy" profession.  Most activity is devoted to customer interaction and meeting bureaucratic protocols - NOT the search for profitable investments.  The truth is that most money managers simply do not have the time or mental focus to THINK - this despite the fact that a great number of them are very intelligent.  
  • Career risk is always the prime motivator ... also the search for strategies and behaviours to improve one's income.  
  • Time frames are limited.  Managers are assessed by short-term performance metrics both by their clients and their bosses.  The constant search for short-term gains is inimical to sound investment strategy ... and clients suffer as a result.  
The Lot of Amateur Investors

My definition of "amateur" is one who engages in an activity on a unpaid basis - no more - no less.  

In comparison with her/his professional counterpart, an amateur has several advantages:
  • A dedicated amateur will, inevitably, have more effective time to learn and engage in the productive management of money.  
  • An amateur has greater freedom to make his/her own mistakes and to learn. 
  • An amateur can expand into new areas of interest without career risk. Being your own boss has real advantages.  
  • Amateurs are not restricted by corporate policies and procedures.  
  • Amateurs can adopt the "long view" - free from the pressures of short-term metrics which prevail in most institutional settings. 
  • Amateurs have the luxury of being able to "do  nothing".  In contrast, it is very difficult for professional investors not to trade: pressures from their institutions and clients make this just about impossible, especially if some investments go south.  The value of this advantage is inestimable as it enables amateurs to minimize trading friction and to refrain from acting on the basis of half-baked ideas.  This said, most amateurs find it very difficult not to fiddle as they simply do not have the mindset to let their investments run.  
There are disadvantages:
  • Professionals may have access to timely information not readily available to those "outside the loop".   Unless one is inclined to time the market, this advantage is not all that important as I regard investing in equities as a slow moving process, especially if one is a value investor.  
  • The best professionals are not inclined to panic.  Instead, they look for opportunity when most others are fearful.  
  • The best professionals are less inclined to follow the latest investment fads. From experience, I have learned that this can be injurious to one's financial well-being.  
Summary

Self-directed investing is not for everybody.  However, for those with an independent mindset, it can be very rewarding from many points of view: the joy of constant learning, the satisfaction derived from taking personal responsibility for one's financial well-being ...  I wouldn't have it any other way.  

Sunday, 11 June 2017

The Financial Log Book - Performance of Investments

The performance of equities discussed in previous posts is noted below.

Entity
Wt
Initial Price/ Purchase * DatePrice *
June 9/17
Gain/Loss
since Jan 1/17
%
Gain/Loss
Since Purchase
%
Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) (formerly Silver Wheaton)
H
12.37
2007-09-04
27.04
5
118.6
Polaris Materials Corporation (PLS)
L
10.70 **
2007-06-01
1.0
-17.4
-90.6
Cenovus (CVE)
M
32.39
2010-07-27
11.10
-45.2
-65.7
North West Company (NWF)
H
16.23
2009-05-07
31.74
17.4
95.6
Deere & Company (DE)
H
88.07
2013-01-03
125.95
23.5
43
Rocky Mountain Dealerships (RME)
H
11.89
2013-01-03
10.20
6.5
-14.3

Oaktree Capital Group (OAK)
M
56.45
2013-10-28
47.50
30.6
-15.5
Fairfax Financial Holdings (FFH)
H
477.98
2014-3-25
sold
624.10

Clean Seed Capital (CSX)
L
.51
2015-01-07
0.40
10.5
-22.6
Abitibi Royalties (RZZ)
M
2.57
2015-11-20
9.3
6.5
261.9
Input Capital (INP)
L
1.86
2015-11-20
2.02
3.1
8.6

Fairfax India Holdings Corp (FIH.U)
H
10.42
2015-12-16
14.75
27.7
41.6
CRH Medical Corp (CRH)
M
4.43
2105-12-29
7.84
9.3
77

*    Prices are quoted in the currency of the exchanges where equities are listed.  As a result the gain/loss is not an accurate measure of the performance of the portfolio as the $US has risen significantly against the $=Cdn since many US positions were established.
**   Gain/Loss not inclusive of dividends
*** does not reflect impact of a large follow-on investment @ $.67 per share

Relative weightings of holdings in the portfolio:
H = >9%
M = 5-9%
L  = <5%

A few observations:

Polaris Materials had great promise; however, it was plagued by poor management:

  • the original assessment of potential markets was never realized
  • there was poor execution of the unloading facility in California - a financial fiasco
  • arrangements for marine transportation were poorly executed and the company suffered as a result of high costs
  • most important - it seems as if the company has lost direction and focus as its efforts are split between getting its primary resource up and running and securing other potential sources of material: you can't do both in nascent enterprises
  • there is no stability in management 
  • most egregious was the dilution of shares as a result of the company's need to make up shortfalls in revenue - this in a climate of record low interest rates!
All in all, this has been a painful lesson in how not to operate a company.  I keep it as a crew member as a reminder of a failure in judgement on my part.  In any event, my original position was very modest - the thought being that I would add to my position as the company achieved various milestones.  

Cenovus and other oil sands producers are out of favour.  Low oil prices coupled with expectations for lower fossil fuel demand as a result of cost efficient renewable energy sources and greater efficiency in energy consumption has soured investors on the oil sands patch.  Other producers have much lower costs of production and transportation.  Unless supplies in the Middle East are compromised through socio/political unrest, the short-term future of oil sands producers is not all that promising.  

Fairfax Financial Holdings was sold for a nice profit.  Why?  I figure that Prem Watsa's new vehicle, Fairfax India Holdings Corp, is a much better prospect:
  • it is managed by a very well respected crew
  • I have misgivings about the short-term future of the insurance industry as it adjusts to the "new normal" of major weather events associated with climate change
  • the business model of FIH.U is powerful and has used successfully by Watsa and other investors of his ilk 
  • India is a very dynamic country and it has prospects of superior economic performance over the next 20 years or more
So far, my thesis has resulted in some rather nice gains.  I had a large position with FFH and simply allocated the proceeds of the sale in establishing a position with FIH.U.  Note that FIH.U does not pay a dividend.  Given the nature of its business model, profits are better applied to purchasing interests in promising companies in a growth mode.  My time horizon for this investment is in the nature of decades.  

Abitibi Royalties has outperformed most of its peers by a large margin.  It is a core holding.  I have great respect for the acumen of Ian Ball, its president and CEO.  His recent Annual Letter to Shareholders is, in my opinion, a masterpiece. Mr. Ball has a very clear sense of direction and communicates it clearly - a nice departure from the crap composed by communications hacks associated with many listed companies.  I plan to add to my position.  

I was pleased with the performance of agricultural holdings.  Farm incomes have dropped significantly over the past three years as a result of low commodity prices and high input costs.  Burned by the last downturn in the farm economy, farmers have adopted a very conservative approach to expenditures, including the purchase of new farm equipment.  However, it is inevitable that commodity prices will recover and that the pent-up demand for replacement equipment will have a very positive impact on companies such as Input Capital, Deere, Rocky Mountain Equipment, and Clean Seed Capital.  

Note re Dividends

Some of the holdings pay very respectable dividends.  

My primary reason for investing in the Northwest Company was that it is well managed and occupies a commanding competitive position in its market area and that the demand for its products and services is subject only to fairly minor fluctuations.  Its reliable cash flow enables it to pay an annual dividend of approximately 4 percent.  While the company has expanded its operations in markets roughly akin to the far north, its recent effort to reduce transportation costs has involved the purchase of North Star Air which is based in Thunder Bay.  While the company has successfully absorbed retail stores, it remains to be seen how this new venture will function in its new environment. 

Oaktree was purchased for its dividends (5 percent plus) and the quality of its management.  The field of alternative/novel investments is crowded but I figure that Oaktree has capacity and staying power.  The market seems to have recognized this on the basis of a recent increase in its share price. 

Rocky Mountain is another core holding.  It pays a hefty dividend, a bonus for investors anticipating an upturn in the agricultural cycle.  Other equipment distributors have sought to diversify the range of their offerings by expanding into new areas of business - this to make up for poor returns from the agricultural sector.  This comes at a cost: the diminution of focus, and added debt (and we all know that interest rates will increase inevitably).  RME has focused on adapting through a variety of strategies to reduce internal costs.  It has been through tough times before and in my view, the company is well positioned for a recovery in the sector.  

Unique Places to Stay in Great Britain - The Landmark Trust - Report on a Recent Visit

On a recent trip to England, we stayed at four places managed by The Landmark Trust.  In brief, this charitable organization rescues and restores historical buildings of note and then rents them out to cover the cost of maintenance and operation.  Its holdings consist of almost 200 buildings ranging from very humble medieval cottages to several small castles.

We were so impressed by our experience that we plan to return soon with the idea of organizing our trip around these iconic buildings.

We were attracted to stay at Landmark Trust buildings for a variety of reasons:

  • They provide unique accommodation and an experience which is rooted directly in the history of the nation.  Imagine opening the door in a Cornwall cottage and taking an early morning walk through fields with walls dating back more than 2000 years old ... or sitting by the window of a folly with a spectacular view over England's green and pleasant land, a glass of scotch in hand, a fire glowing in the hearth ... 
  • The buildings are usually sited in outstanding situations.  
  • The restorations have been done with great care and sensitivity in order to maintain historical character of the buildings.  At the same time, modern bathrooms and very well equipped kitchens have been incorporated in a way that is respectful of the original qualities of the structures. 
  • The cost is comparable to mid-range quality hotels when one considers that you can make your own meals.  (We usually bought lunch while touring during the day.)
  • The housekeeping standards are exceptional and the places are very comfortable.  
  •  You have access to comprehensive libraries on local attractions and history contemporary to the buildings.  Visitor log books provide useful hints on points of local interest - something which you cannot often find in guidebooks.  
As a matter of policy, the properties do not offer WiFi.  This was no issue for us as we purchased monthly cellular data plans for our iPads.  

Rental periods vary.  You can rent properties weekly or for shorter periods of three or four days.  The practice is to make reservations on-line.  It is advisable to do this months in advance of your planned trip as some popular properties (e.g. John Fowles' house in Cornwall) are snapped up quickly.  

Report on Four Places (click on names to learn more)


The Tower has a romantic story: a young wife built the tower on the sly as a birthday gift for her elderly husband.  As the story goes, Lord Rolle was carried to the top of the tower by servants who hefted the chair up a narrow and winding stairway.  

The building is very private, situated on a hilltop and surrounded for the most part, by plantation forests.  The view from the roof is stupendous.  Before the scourge of old-style mono culture plantations, it would have been even better as the site was far more open when the belvedere was constructed. 

There is one room per floor: the sitting room on the fourth floor and the third floor bedrooms are flooded with light.  Deer and pheasant are common and we read in the log book that a pair of crows had an inordinate interest in pecking at the side mirrors on visitors' cars.

It was a delightful introduction to England ... and after four days, our legs were in great shape as a result of numerous trips up and down the staircase.  Thank you, Lady Rolle. 




This place is enchanting.  The "folly" was built by a local lad who made his fortune in India and returned to Cornwall to pursue a variety of commercial interests.  While the manor house was demolished following a decline in the family fortunes, the Temple remains, although before its rescue by the Landmark Trust, it served as a cattle shed for a brief period.  

Thankfully, this granite building has been restored.  It consists of a single room fronted by three immense Georgian-style windows which present a sublime view of the rural landscape.

The place is literally hopping with rabbits and the sky is full of mobs of crows - your only neighbours in several hundred metres.  




The house is situated in a very ancient landscape - celtic fields demarcated by walls which date back more than 2000 years.  It is vintage Cornwall: rolling hills topped by moorlands, fields full of sheep and cattle, public footpaths leading to a magnificent coastline ... and lots of wind which can be ferocious at times.  I went on a very early morning walk, just as the sky was starting to brighten.  It was easy to imagine tin being loaded onto a Phoenician boat pulled up to a jetty in the cove shown below.  (At least that's what a local farmer told me.)  This is the perfect place to tour the scenic backdrop of Poldark, a quite wonderful BBC series set in the era of tin mining on the coast.







Beamsley Hospital ca 1593

Hidden into a fold of Beamsley Hill in the southern Yorkshire Dales, Beamsley Hospital was built as an almshouse, a place for indigent older women to live out their days, provided they were of good character ... and Protestant.  In her wisdom, the Countess of Cumberland (see picture below) funded the operation with the annual proceeds of the rent from two farms.  Amazingly, the Hospital continued in its original function until the early 1970's when its facilities were considered outdated.

The building consists of seven rooms which radiate out from a central chapel which has remained unchanged from the original.  Three of the bedrooms have been changed to a kitchen, bathroom and a sitting room.  There are doors everywhere as the bedrooms are accessed via the central chapel plus a few connected passages.  Even after four days, we sometimes found ourselves opening doors to rooms that were not the object of our intentions.

This is one of the most interesting places we have ever stayed - and it's close to a wealth of interesting local attractions, ranging from the glories of York to great walks on the moorlands.  And sometimes, it makes sense to stay put: to read on the patio in the shade of trees while enjoying the bucolic countryside or lounging by the glow of a small fireplace in the sitting room in the evening.  Perfection.










Postscript

The National Trust, another UK organization focused on the preservation of noteworthy historic sites and buildings, also offers a wide range of accommodation.  If we are ever in Cornwall again, we will definitely consider staying at one of the properties, Cotehele, a medieval manor house and estate. We were captivated by this place.

English Heritage is also well worth considering as it offers accommodation at several iconic properties.



Wednesday, 7 June 2017

Interesting Article About Investing in Agricultural Innovation

I have a rather large position in Clean Seed Capital, a Canadian start-up which has developed a very effective seeder: farmer-friendly and with the capacity to deliver four separate products at variable rates depending on field and seed requirements.  The company has no debt.  It has refined its technology and progressed to the point of having production facilities, distributors in the U.S. and Canada and a rather impressive set of test results.  Its management is honest, responsive and has "muddy boots" and strong connections to the community of working farmers.

Originally, I thought that the exit strategy would consist of being bought out by a larger enterprise with well established product lines and marketing/distribution networks.  My thinking is gradually changing.  In my view, this company has the potential to expand and prosper through strategic alliances with distributors such as Rocky Mountain Equipment.  You can check the company's progress by visiting its web site.

The following article is only one of many which has changed my thinking about CSE's future.

There’s a real risk that the biggest agricultural companies in the world right now might not be the same in 10 years’ time. That doesn’t have to be the case, but if you look at the data, it’s not hard to imagine it happening.

While a number of forward-thinking agricultural corporates are investing big money in technology, there’s a significant majority who are not. They are waiting on the sidelines, perhaps understandably thinking that it makes sense to follow a “wait-and-see” strategy.

“Wait-and-see” almost never works in technology. The big agricultural corporates need to start taking genuine risks in agtech, which means making acquisitions that move the needle. Buying up smaller players alone won’t cut it. Neither will in-house innovation. Only bold moves and visionary tech acquisitions will help the big agricultural firms avoid disruption, and in some cases even become the disrupters themselves.
Agricultural Giants Risk Being Left Behind in Agtech Boom

Investing in this beast is not for the those who are impatient or faint of heart:

  • Today's environment of low crop prices and high input costs have had a major impact on farm finances.  Equipment sales have suffered as a result. The climate for the introduction of new products is not benevolent.   
  • Farmers are very much from the "show me" crowd.  It will take time for the benefits of CSE's technology to be demonstrated and appreciated in the broader market place.  However, word-of-mouth is an especially potent tool and to date, the equipment has received a positive reception at farm shows and demonstrations have shown its ability to seed a variety of crop types in a variety of field settings.  
  • There will always be competition; however, Clean Seed has been diligent about protecting its intellectual property. 
I made this investment with an initial 5 year time horizon.  My reasons:
  • competent, experienced, responsive management with "muddy boots"
  • the company's record of steady progress in development, manufacturing, and distribution
  • zero debt and apparently, no difficulty in securing financing (with substantial funds from within the farming community)
  • the need for cost effective machinery designed for precision agriculture
  • the thought that the "farm cycle" will rebound over time (as it always has) and that will present a more attractive market for the company's product and services