The Landmark Trust - Wonderful Accommodation in Great Britain

I am planning a trip to England and Scotland.  As always, I look for accommodation which "interesting" - places which are destinations in their own right.  There are some appealing places offered by The National Trust and English Heritage, historical conservation organizations which have done wonderful work in protecting and interpreting England's heritage.  Their rental accommodation is well worth investigating.

Fortunately, I hit another mother load, The Landmark Trust.

Briefly, the Trust restores noteworthy historic buildings and then rents them out to pay the freight.  It's a wonderful idea ... and the places are eclectic: everything from follies, to small castles, to modest fishermen's cottages.  Not often do you get the opportunity to stay in a medieval house ... or a castle ... or even where John Fowles lived in Cornwall for many years! Belmont House

As a concession to modern expectations, the restorations have conveniences such as effective heating, interior bathrooms and cooking facilities. Generally speaking, you will have the entire building to yourselves.  Some of the buildings accommodate two persons whereas others can sleep twelve or more. You can rent the premises for periods of the following duration: three or four days or weekly. Due to the popularity of the properties, it is advisable to make reservations well in advance.

We will be staying in four of the Landmark Trust properties on our next visit to England.  I'll describe them in a future post.

Here are a few examples of places on tap:  I've included an exterior and interior shot of each building.

Scale and Scalability - dimensions for evaluating potential investments

As one trained in geography, biology and the fine arts, I look at potential investments from a viewpoint which often differs from analysts who received their training in business schools.  In this post, I would like to address a few aspects of "scale" and "scalability".  The concepts are fairly simple on the surface.  In later posts I may expand upon some of the following basic concepts and also, expand the discussion to include more dimensions of "scale".

Impact

The following diagram was advanced by an entrepreneur who screens potential ideas by their potential to make a difference.  It is elegant.

https://medium.com/startup-grind/meta-problems-and-the-problem-stack-ceadb9b26546#.2idyfzk05

The products and services of great enterprises have a global impact.  Tremendous profits can be achieved by investing in these beasts in their early stages i.e. Google, Microsoft.  It is extremely difficult to identify these opportunities, especially as the companies often have far-out, ground-breaking concepts which are unappreciated in the early going e.g. distribution models used by Fedex, marketing and distribution by Amazon etc.  

This is a tremendously powerful idea.  When searching for investment ideas, it often pays to push away from the table and think at a very high level.  This process often takes years; however, the "view" that emerges from such thinking can be extremely powerful.  Hint: don't look to think tanks and the bleatings of "futurists".  Look to the artistic community and outliers in society as these elements are often extremely sensitive to changes in the human condition.  

Scalability

Thank Heaven for Wikipedia!  Here is a very succinct overview of "scalability". 

Scalability can be measured in various dimensions, such as:

Administrative scalability: The ability for an increasing number of organizations or users to easily share a single distributed system.

Functional scalability: The ability to enhance the system by adding new functionality at minimal effort.

Geographic scalability: The ability to maintain performance, usefulness, or usability regardless of expansion from concentration in a local area to a more distributed geographic pattern.

Load scalability: The ability for a distributed system to easily expand and contract its resource pool to accommodate heavier or lighter loads or number of inputs. Alternatively, the ease with which a system or component can be modified, added, or removed, to accommodate changing load.

Generation scalability refers to the ability of a system to scale up by using new generations of components. Thereby, heterogeneous scalability is the ability to use the components from different vendors.[4]

Note:  I will add to this article over the next few days.  It is my first post that is published on the fly - an experiment.  

Habits of Millionaires ... and an important footnote

I've read a great deal about wealth management and have tried to incorporate key gleanings from that reading into my approach to life.

Of course, the key to a "successful" life entails far more than having a fat purse ... but it certainly helps to have the wherewithal to pursue a "rich life".

Here is a cogent summary of the habits of wealthy people who have accumulated wealth through their own efforts:

The Top 10 Habits of Millionaires

There is a common thread to many of the habits; namely, "to invest in one's self". It's perhaps the single most important thing a person can do.

The Importance of Learning How to Invest

In our early years, my wife and I lived off one salary - the other one was banked. Our salaries were modest, but we reached the point where we were able to put 50 percent down on the purchase of our first (and only) house.  We paid it off a little more than 3 years later.

Our biggest mistake thereafter, I call it the "lost decade and a half", was not to invest our savings in a meaningful way.  Instead, I relied on others and parked most of our grubstake in mutual funds.  Further, we lessened our savings rate.

Then, things changed significantly: a new government came in and implemented massive cuts to the civil service where I worked.  I had the misery of giving notice to 35 percent of my staff.  There was no assurance that I would not be next as the axe continued to fall.

I resolved from that point forward to gain a measure of financial independence: to be in a position to have the resources to retrain and start a business of my own in the event of a firing.  From 2:00 to 4:00 AM every day, I worked on learning how to invest.  After 8 years, I was making more from that than from my wages - this despite several promotions.

At first, I hated the activity, but soon I became captivated by the thrill of learning new things, the psychology of investing, and the "hunt" for potential investments.

In so-called "retirement" from the wage economy, I still find great satisfaction in investing activity.  Further, it has enabled us to pursue many new interests and to assist family members in starting new businesses.

One of the best things you can do for your kids is to give them a strong set of values to live by.  Helicopter parenting is an anathema: more than ever, kids will require resilience and a strong sense of self in order to cope with a world which is changing rapidly.  And I would argue that the skill sets and approaches which sustained parents through their early years may be insufficient to meet the challenges of the "new world".

This said, values are enduring - it's just that kids will have work out how they are expressed for themselves.

One of the key values is embedding in one's kids, the approach of being successful financially, hence this post.

Evaluating Mine Development - A Short Post

I have written previously about investing in mines, primarily those focused on gold and silver.

My criteria are fairly simple:

• the quality of management is key
• stable geo/political jurisdictions - I never stray 
• located in areas with good supporting infrastructure (financial, logistical, personnel)
• strong balance sheets 
• preference for working mines or those which can be "de-mothballed" fairly quickly
• the prospect of markets which make operations profitable

It's always useful to review one's approach and refine it as appropriate.  Here's another group of considerations.  I'll not steal the punchline: the article is short.

Getting Big Mining Projects Right

Clean Seed Capital - starting to sprout

I have written a few posts about this start-up company.

Briefly, CSX has developed the CX-6 Smart Seeder.

The SMART Seeder™ offers an unrivaled level of precision in modern no-till seeding. This drill demonstrates the future of farming.

Clean Seed has developed an advanced precision no-till seeding system comprising several individually patented technologies, including in-ground openers, proprietary seed and fertilizer metering, and electronic control systems. Our most recent ground breaking achievement is also our most advanced and innovative to date: the award winning CX-6 SMART Seeder™, which is an industry first!

It represents a major advance in seeding technology for large scale farming operations:

• can plant seeds at variable rates very precisely in order to fulfill the requirements of precision agriculture
• has the capacity to deliver other products (e.g. fertilizer, pesticides) simultaneously and at variable rates
• it enables farmers to practice intercropping to increase yields and profits http://us7.campaign-archive1.com/?u=07f7d9dee595a47b1c531c8f4&id=dc42a7d073&e=6ffb8de420
• has a modular system whereby malfunctioning parts can be replaced quickly in the field

More detail is provided here. 

http://www.cleanseedcapital.com/home

I was privy to a confidential report on field tests of the prototype and it was superior to anything on the market.  (I obtained this by writing to the President to learn more about the technology - this when I was evaluating a potential purchase of stock.)  Since that time, the SMART Seeder has undergone additional field testing in a variety of conditions/geographies.

In recent years, the company has developed a production capacity by means of an agreement with a respected equipment manufacturer and has also entered into distribution agreement with Rocky MountainEquipment, a company which I established a position with several years ago.
https://www.rockymtn.com/

Recently, Clean Seed made the following announcement:

February 23, 2017 - Vancouver, British Columbia - Clean Seed Capital Group Ltd. (“Clean Seed” or the “Company”) (TSX-V: CSX) has entered into a distribution partnership agreement with Torgerson’s LLC (“Togerson’s”) to bring its CX-6 SMART Seeder™ technology to the United States through 1) an exclusive dealership arrangement for Montana and North West Dakota 2) the creation of a CX-6 SMART Seeder™ demonstration centre and 3) providing a base for further expansion into other key US markets.
http://www.cleanseedcapital.com/blog/post/clean-seed-capital-group-tsxv-csx-enters-the-united-states-market-through-new-strategic-alliance-and-closure-of-associated-investment-1

I have great expectations for Clean Seed:

• It has been able to secure financial support at all times and has no debt.  
• It has progressed in a very deliberate way, building its technology and the supporting infrastructure to bring its product to the marketplace. 
• Management is communicative: I received a response from the the President within hours of writing him by e-mail.  The response was fulsome and direct.  
• Clean Seed's team has "mud on its boots" and strong links with the farming community.  
• It appears from recent additions to its Board, that the company is clearly positioning itself for expansion into additional markets. 

The investment has required patience and a recognition that the path to success has many twists and turns:

• It is common for stock prices in new ventures  to gyrate significantly (and it certainly has)
• New ventures require agility: a willingness to bring new people on board to build management capacity as the technology develops and to bring it to the marketplace  (Clean Seed has done this in spades)
• Many technologies fail because they do not bring quantifiable benefits to customers.  It would appear that the field trials have demonstrated this effectively.  Farmers tend to be "show me" people and are loath to accept the blandishments of slick "suits".  

Here is a synopsis of four keystones for the success of agricultural start-ups.  It would appear that Clean Seed has the "right stuff":

https://agfundernews.com/observants-4-lessons-for-agritech-startups-in-wake-of-acquisition-by-jain7327.html

This said, there are a few issues with the potential affect the fortunes of this company:

• Trump trade policies
• the state of the agricultural cycle (my sense is that we are near/at the bottom of the cycle and that things will improve over the next several years)
• manufacturing glitches and the inevitable issues in the field which arise with the advent of new technologies (operator error, equipment deficiencies)
• competition: Clean Seed is a new entity and must compete with well-established companies with deep pockets and long-standing customer relationships.  
• in the short term, it is getting more difficult for farmers in the Mid-West and elsewhere to secure financing for equipment purchases given a regime of low prices for crops such as corn and soybeans https://www.farm-equipment.com/articles/13760-deu

To my mind, there are two potential scenarios regarding the future of Clean Seed:

1. Organic growth: a slow process whereby the company grows its market and adds other products over time.  
2. Take-over by a larger corporate entity.  Case IH comes to mind as its product line is carried by Rocky Mountain et al.  

My bet is on the second scenario, although I would prefer to watch Clean Seed develop to the point where it could command a higher price point.  

I have steadily added to my position over time as the company has passed various milestones.  The additions have not been affected by the stock price of the moment, a rather silly way to make one's investment decisions with beasts of this nature.

Strategic Positioning of Clean Seed

When searching for potential investments in agricultural equipment manufacturers, I looked for, among other things, products which "fitted" best with emerging trends - in this case - the growing presence of larger farming operations.  The CX-6 Smart Seeder is clearly aimed at this market.  Read this. (You can drill down more by clicking on the links internal to the article.)

https://www.farm-equipment.com/articles/13828-deu

A New "Advance" in Nuclear Weaponry Poses a New Threat to Russia ... and everyone else

The U.S. has developed a new technology for fusing its nuclear warheads.  In brief, it enables the more accurate delivery of warheads over targets with the result that it has reduced the number of warheads required to neutralize hardened targets such a missile launch sites and control centres.

This has major consequences as it would appear that a "first strike" by the U.S. can be far more devastating ... and potentially, more "attractive" for those with the mentality of Dr. Strangelove.

It is also important to recognize that with the advance positioning of American nuclear submarines, delivery times have been reduced.  This is aggravated by the fact that Russian technology for the detection of incoming missiles provides only a fifteen minute window from the point of detection to the time of impact.  (The Americans have an advantage in that they have a satellite array which provides a thirty minute window.)

The following article provides a chilling portrait of this scenario.  It does not mention the growing capacity of the U.S. with respect to missile interception.

http://thebulletin.org/how-us-nuclear-force-modernization-undermining-strategic-stability-burst-height-compensating-super10578

The bottom line is that decision-making time for responses to perceived threats on the part of Russian operatives has been compressed.  The consequences of these decisions are probably more monumental than at any time in history.