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Maplecroft's Food Security Index 2013 |
The Food Security Risk Index has been developed for governments, NGOs and business to use as a barometer to identify those countries which may be susceptible to famine and societal unrest stemming from food shortages and price fluctuations. Maplecroft reaches its results by evaluating the availability, access and stability of food supplies in 197 countries, as well as the nutritional and health status of populations.
There are several inter-related mechanisms which affect food security:
- governance: rule of law, effective institutions
- poverty
- civil unrest, armed conflict
- drought and water availability
- farming practices
- distribution networks for farm supplies and crop movement
- food inflation i.e. increased cost of importing foodstuffs when global shortages are present (especially important in the Middle East where governments subsidize food to maintain social peace)
If anything, climatic variability will place additional stress on the global food system. Much of that impact will be expressed most profoundly in some of the most densely populated areas of the world.
I would argue that developed western economies have an advantage due to better performance on the above-noted metrics relative to other jurisdictions. Further, they have a greater amount of arable land relative to their human populations ... also the fortunate geographic situation to be somewhat less impacted by variations due to climate change than other regions of the world.
For these reasons, I will continue to invest in agriculture in North America, New Zealand and Australia. I have yet to investigate possibilities in northern Europe and Chile. The potential for increased exports of foodstuffs remains attractive from an investment perspective and the efficiency of producers is second to none.
Areas of focus include:
- equipment/services suppliers
- seed companies
- fertilizer/chemicals
- knowledge management
- related transportation services
